US Election: Hating a pop star won't hurt Donald Trump

• Paul Krishnamurty on Donald Trump v Taylor Swift

• Why Trump's latest outburst won't lose him votes

• Ten times Trump broke the rules and got away with it

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We are now less than 50 days out from the US Presidential Election, but in spite of a news cycle that could barely be more dramatic the odds remain almost static, with Kamala Harris the favourite to beat Donald Trump.

In such a frenetic news cycle Trump posting 'I hate Taylor Swift' on his Truth social platform may have been passed over or even forgotten but I want to pause on it for a moment, because in past years that surely would have moved the market. A moment that was sure to cut through to a much wider audience than merely politicos. Which appeared, at first glance, to be an act of political suicide. Yet the markets barely flickered.

If Taylor Swift were a punk band, this would be printed on their next batch of merch. https://t.co/3L8Ab9UISz

? Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 15, 2024

Donald Trump has lost what little sanity he had left.
Taylor Swift broke him. pic.twitter.com/LOOOZgFwtp

? Ana Navarro-Cárdenas (@ananavarro) September 15, 2024

The instant reaction on social media was indeed one of disbelief, despair among some Republican strategist types, and delight among some liberals. I was never convinced it would make an impact, though. Nine years following Trump's every move has taught me to be cautious about even raising an eyebrow, and I suspect most political bettors were of the same mindset.

In January 2016, leading the Republican Primary polls, Trump said: "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose any voters." Time and time again since, we have been reminded how right he was.

Of course that doesn't mean he wins any new voters, who in every election to date have outnumbered supporters, but Trump has never seemed too interested in convincing opponents. Consider these 10 examples, honestly plucked off the top of my head. I am sure readers can remember many more.

Ten times Trump broke the rules without penalty

1. Trump's first ever TV debate opened with a question from Megyn Kelly about his various disparaging comments towards women. The next day he complained to CNN about her attitude, saying she had "blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever." This was assumed to finish him. His odds sunk, temporarily.

2. Around the same time in 2016, he drew near-universal condemnation for publicly, physically mocking a disabled reporter who dared asked him a tough question. Both Republican and Democrat opponents repeatedly referred to the incident, as illustrative of his character. No effect.

3. Same campaign, Trump claimed a US Army Captain who had died in Iraq would still be alive if Trump had been President. The father called the comment 'cruel' and took to the airwaves. Trump continued and escalated the row. He is again embroiled in a row with Gold Star families over his PR stunt at Arlington Cemetary. So far, no effect.

4. He repeatedly criticised former Republican candidate John McCain for being captured in Vietnam, and mocked the injuries sustained as a prisoner of war over the years. He continues to do so, long after McCain's death.

5. When Clinton raised his fat-shaming of a former Miss Universe contestant during their debate, rather than brush the incident off like any normal candidate, Trump doubled down and carried on doing so on Twitter for days afterwards.

6. When the "Pussygate" tapes from "Access Hollywood" dropped in the middle of the 2016 campaign, for 24 hours or so there was genuine speculation that the Republicans would drop him as candidate. Gambles galore were launched. Nothing changed.

7. Too many Putin incidents to count. Asking Russia to find Hillary Clinton's e-mails, after they had hacked both parties. Siding with Putin against US intelligence agencies. Calling Putin a 'peacemaker' after invading Ukraine. Ronald Reagan must be turning in his grave, but most of the GOP base merely switched their allegiance.

8. Ordering the removal of peaceful protesters, using tear gas, from Lafayette Square, so he could pose for a photo-op outside a church.

9. Inciting the January 6th insurrection.

10. Nancy Pelosi's 84-year-old husband nearly died in a hammer attack from intruders to his home. Within hours Trump's son and other surrogates were mocking Pelosi on social media. Trump still frequently makes sarcastic remarks about her security.

Pop culture has two sides and opposite reactions

Set against all those, saying he hates Swift really pales into comparison. I doubt many Swift fans were going to vote for Trump, but now won't. In fact, by overtly hating her, he might even pick up some votes from those who agree.

I'm way too old to express a knowledgeable opinion on Swift and her fanbase, but I see the same dynamics with Oasis. My social media timeline is full of those who are super-excited about their reunion, and a smaller number who are sick of all the hype and want to express it.

This cuts into the wider Trump phenomenon. He is a creation of pop culture. And in pop culture, every phenomenon produces an opposing reaction. By intersecting with politics, Trump made himself the iconic leader of anti-liberal culture wars. A standard bearer for white rage, male rage, for those who think feminism or what they call 'political correctness' has gone too far. Nobody else in politics can do it like him, because nobody else has anything like his cultural brand, or cut-through.

There will be young men who cheered his Swift post, who might not otherwise have voted for Trump. This won't hurt him.

Now read the latest US predictions from Betfair predicts