Wales v Belgium: Back home win at 7/2 in the dragons lair

• Underdogs are a reliable team in Cardiff 

• Home win dripping in value at 7/2

• Neco Williams averaging 1.4 shots per 90 for Wales

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

Wales v Belgium
Monday 13 October, 19:45
Live on S4C & BBC One Wales

Belgium to flounder in Cardiff atmosphere

Let's get one thing absolutely clear before we talk on field matters: there is no national anthem in the world that stirs the soul like Hen Wlad Fy when sung in Cardiff. None. 

When that Welsh anthem hits - full voice, 30,000 strong in the Cardiff night - the place transforms.

It becomes a bear pit. A dragon's lair.

It has an impact on their football team, I'm convinced by it.

Just one defeat in their last 11 competitive home matches vouches for that and even going back further, when the stakes are high and Cardiff is the venue, Wales are a reliable betting proposition.

Craig Bellamy's Wales are no longer just blood-and-thunder merchants either. There's structure. There's smart pressing. There's elite attacking patterns. Bellamy has got a team that can control moments as well as thrive in chaos.

And Belgium really aren't a team to fear anymore. A fading golden generation.

Wales exposed those frailties when scoring three times in an eventual 4-3 defeat in the reverse fixture, firing eight shots on target to a backdrop of 2.1 worth of expected goals. They have the tools to hurt Belgium and look a nice slice of value at 100/304.30 to win this encounter.

That price is simply too big for a team with their Cardiff pedigree, against a beatable Belgium side in flux. The smart move? Back the home side straight up, or if you're a little twitchy, then the draw no bet option at 23/103.30 where stakes are returned if it ends a draw.

Shots fired! Williams is a bet

I am a sucker for a full-back with greed in his eyes and a licence to shoot. One of my go-to guys in that regard over the years has been Neco Williams - a man who plays like every touch is his last and has more than a eye for a speculative strike from distance.

Punters looking for a juicy angle in the player shots market should have their dart aimed at Williams. This isn't just a hunch. It's a brilliant angle to exploit as it ticks both key boxes of being data-driven and eye-test approved. 

Across his recent international appearances, Williams has consistently racked up shot volume. He's landed for those backing his one or more line in 13 of his last 18 starts for Wales. Across those games he's averaging 1.4 shots per 90, including having three shots from right-back in the last qualifier against Kazakhstan. 

And the eye-test of having watched Williams for many years, tells me that he's not fussed about xG or getting into the six-yard box, he wants his name in lights. And when the occasion calls for bravery and someone to step up, which it always does against a side like Belgium, you can bank on Williams to step up and have a pop at some point in the game.

As mentioned, Belgium, too, are no longer the defensive fortress of yesteryear. Their transitional moments are creaky, especially down the flanks, and if Wales manage to transition with any tempo and drive, Williams is exactly the kind of player who can arrive untracked and find space to get a shot away.

Is he wasteful? Absolutely. But in the player shots market, greed is good and it does not matter where the ball ends up. Back him to have two or more shots at 13/102.30.