Spain v Sweden Women's World Cup: Back Spain to be on front foot

• Spain has never got this far in a major tournament

• Spain have has most shots at WWC

• Determined Sweden a threat at set plays

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

Spain v Sweden
Tuesday 15 August, 09:00
Live on BBC

Spain have broken new ground

For all the angst and controversy of the past year, Spain have found a way to put aside their enmity and reach the last four of a major tournament for the first time. Fifteen players refused to play while coach Jorge Vilda was in charge, but the federation backed their man (his family connections helped), and most of the rogue 15 came back.

Spain were impressive in their first two group games, but were shredded 4-0 by Japan in their final match of the section, ringing alarm bells.

However, they then swept aside Switzerland 5-1 in the last 16 (Aitana Bonmati was excellent), and although they were forced into extra time by the Netherlands in their quarter-final, it would be hard to argue that their eventual 2-1 victory wasn't deserved overall. La Roja racked up 15 goal attempts to the Netherlands' six, and nine of those 15 were on target.

I still have concerns about the team defensively (the concession of a last-gasp leveller against the Netherlands was completely preventable), but there's no arguing with the attacking talent.

Salma Paralluelo finally scored the goal she's been threatening to all tournament, as she fired in the winner against the Dutch. Barcelona star Bonmati is as classy a midfielder as you'll find at the tournament, while Alba Redondo, Jenni Hermoso and Esther Gonzalez are all dangerous forwards.

We haven't even got to Alexia Putellas, who is one of the world's best players, but clearly isn't fully fit, which is why she's being used sparingly by Vilda. It's worth remembering that Putellas missed the Euros last year because of a serious ACL injury.

Sweden have left favourites trailing in their wake

It hasn't always been pretty, but Sweden have deserved their passage to the semi-finals, having shown grit, determination and a flair for set plays. Remarkably, centre-back Amanda Ilestedt is second in the race for the Golden Boot with four goals, and that shows just how effective the Scandinavians have been in dead-ball situations.

Sweden have ridden their luck at times on their way to the final four. Chelsea's Zecira Musovic produced a goalkeeping performance for the ages in the goalless draw against the USA, and the USWNT players were so spooked by it that they couldn't handle facing her in the penalty shoot-out.

Japan missed a penalty and struck the crossbar as they tried to come back from 2-0 down against Sweden in the quarter-final, and they fell just short in a 2-1 defeat.

But for all that, Peter Gerhardsson's side deserves respect. They have attacking quality in Arsenal striker Stina Blackstenius, Barcelona's Fridolina Rolfo and the technically-gifted Kosovare Asllani, although it doesn't always seem as if those attacking elements gel. That said, Sweden won all three of their group games, scoring nine goals and conceding one, so they are capable of opening up.

Without the ball, Sweden are incredibly well organised, and they work so hard. Musovic has really risen to the occasion, and I'd expect her to have plenty of work to do here.

Spain to dominate the ball, but Swedish set plays a threat

The beauty of the Sportsbook's Bet Builder is that you have so many ways you can attack a game, depending on what you believe the pattern will be. I can see Spain dominating possession here, and Sweden pretty much letting them do that.

Spain are averaging eight shots on target per 90, which is a tournament high. They have had 130 shots overall, which is the highest figure in the World Cup by some distance (France are next on 93). I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Spain to have at least four shots on target over the 90 minutes here.

I'll also back Arsenal defender Ilestedt to have a shot in the match. She has been a consistent threat from set plays, and we don't even need her to hit the target to make the bet land. That double gives us a combined total of 2.0811/10.

We can boost that price further to 2.982/1 on the Bet Builder if we back midfielder Kosovare Asllani to commit a foul. Sweden will have plenty of work to do without the ball, and Asllani has racked up eight fouls in the tournament so far.