Germany v Portugal: Back Ronaldo to shine in Munich semi-final

• Germany completed crazy quarter-final win over Italy

• Goals likely as Euro heavyweights meet

• Ronaldo always worth backing to score at 2.8415/8

Germany v Portugal
Wednesday 04 June, 20:00
Live on Amazon Prime

Nagelsmann keen to take the next step

Since taking the Germany job, Julian Nagelsmann has kept the team on an upward curve. They reconnected with a disaffected football public during the European Championship on home soil, losing narrowly to eventual winners Spain in the quarter-finals (German fans still haven't stopped complaining about the penalty they thought they should have had for a Marc Cucurella handball).

The next stage of the journey is this attempt to win the Nations League for the first time. A thrilling quarter-final success against Italy booked a semi-final and potential final on home turf. After a terrific comeback win in Milan in the first leg, Germany went 3-0 up and 5-1 up on aggregate in the return match, only to end up drawing 3-3 and nearly blowing the tie.

Nagelsmann admits that brush with disaster was a sign his side are a work in progress, but the fact they raced into a 3-0 lead shows what they are capable of.

Germany haven't lost a game in 90 minutes since November 2023, and they have won 11 of their last 17 internationals. In that spell they have beaten France, Netherlands (twice), Italy and Denmark. If you look at their last 12 internationals on home soil (including the Euros) they have won eight, drawn three and lost just one.

Goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen is back after missing most of Barcelona's season with injury, and he's expected to start here. Joshua Kimmich will captain the side on his 100th appearance for Germany.

Midfielders Nadiem Amiri and Angelo Stiller have pulled out because of injury, while Inter defender Yann Bisseck is sidelined after limping out of the Champions League final and Mainz striker Jonathan Burkardt has pulled out with a cut heel.

Ronaldo still dominates the discourse

Love him or loathe him, you can't deny Cristiano Ronaldo's longevity or quality. He is on the cusp of a staggering 220th international appearance for Portugal, a world record that will take some breaking. The 40-year-old's 136 goals is also a record at international level, and there are no signs that Selecao boss Roberto Martinez will pull the plug any time soon.

Ronaldo hasn't been able to lead Saudi club side Al Nassr to a league or continent-wide title, and his performances at Euro 2024 were largely disappointing. He failed to score a single goal, despite being given the whole 120 minutes in the knockout games against Slovenia and France.

That led to suggestions that Martinez was over-indulging the veteran and stifling the growth of his successors, but the coach insists that Ronaldo's professionalism and quality make him a shining example to the younger players in the squad.

On the other hand, Ronaldo is still scoring freely in general for club and country. He's just scored 25 goals in 30 Saudi Pro League games, and for Portugal he has found the net in five of his seven caps since the Euros.

Portugal made heavy weather of their quarter-final against Denmark, losing the first leg at home before forcing extra-time in the second leg and then running away with it. Their recent record against Germany is atrocious, with five defeats on the spin.

Martinez has come out fighting ahead of the game, insisting he is unfairly maligned despite a strong record as Portugal coach. While he is saying winning another Nations League title is important, he admits the main goal is delivering a first ever World Cup trophy.

The likes of Vitinha, Joao Neves and Nuno Mendes have just won the Champions League with PSG, and after days of celebration it remains to be seen whether they'll start here. Joao Cancelo is out injured, while Porto tyro Rodrigo Mora has been given a first call-up.

Goals likely in high-quality clash

Whilst I like this Germany side under Nagelsmann, and they have a strong home record, I'm sceptical about backing them to win inside 90 minutes here at 1.910/11.

It seems a safer play to me to back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.824/5. That paid out in both of Germany's quarter-final matches, and six of their last eight internationals.

Germany aren't good enough defensively to play a cautious game, and I expect them to play on the front foot. It's been a long, hard season for both sets of players, and I'm expecting a few gaps to open up.

Ronaldo overpriced to find the net

I'm interested in any game in which Cristiano Ronaldo is priced at 2.8415/8 to score at any time, and if he starts here that's a wager worth making.

Germany have managed just seven clean sheets in their last 27 matches, and it's worth remembering that Portugal's attack does tend to be geared towards Ronaldo when he's in the team. He still takes free-kicks and penalties, and his scoring record since the Euros has been respectable.

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