Bet of the Day

Spain v Germany: Back Yamal to harass hosts

Spain midfielder Rodri
Rodri could run the game for Spain

One of Spain's starlets can be a difference maker in Deutschland today, says Tobias Gourlay.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 quarter-finals podcast tips

Spain v Germany
Friday 17:00
(Live on ITV 1)

The Euros resume today and we're in Stuttgart to see the hosts take on the only team with a perfect winning record.

The market is finding it hard to separate Spain and Germany. With 3/4 head-to-heads since 2018 finishing 1-1, the draw is also a serious runner. The outlier in those recent match-ups is La Roja's 6-0 thrashing of Die Mannschaft in the Nations League in 2020. But new coaches have changed the identities of both teams since then and we'd expect today's clash to be a little closer.

Spain have won 4/4 at Euro 2024 to this point. They've been largely impressive in doing so, outscoring the opposition 9-1. The stars of the show have been young widemen Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, and the price on one of them to score is catching our eye today. Sixteen-year-old Barcelona prodigy Yamal has fired in 11 shots across three starts and a substitute appearance so far. That's as many as anyone in the Spain squad and his xG per shot is higher than most (0.17). He hasn't found the back of the net yet, but his overall xG is 1.83.

Out on the right wing, it's not clear yet who Yamal will be up against today. Julian Nagelsmann has started Maximilian Mittelstadt and David Raum at left-back so far. If he sticks with the more attacking Raum, who started the Last 16 game against Denmark, there should be extra space for Yamal to cut inside and shoot with his favoured left foot. An Exchange price of around 5.49/2 on Yamal to score in 90 minutes would become extra tempting.

While Spain have comprehensively outplayed the pedigree teams they've played so far (Italy and Croatia), Germany needed a late equaliser to draw 1-1 with the well-organised Swiss, who look like the best team they've encountered to this point. Spain are another step up for Nagelsmann and his men, who look to be going in a good direction but are not yet the complete package. We'd give the away side the edge, but our main focus is a punt on Spain's teenage sensation to light up Stuttgart.

Now read our Portugal v France match preview here!

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