Belgium v Ukraine: Back Lukaku to lead the way

• Incentives for both teams to win...
  

• So there could be a few goals

• Back Lukaku to score
  

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Belgium v Ukraine
Wednesday 17:00 (Live on BBC One)

In Dortmund yesterday, Poland held France to a 1-1 draw that sends Les Bleus into the tough half of the draw already containing Spain, Portugal and Germany. They won't admit it, but the lopsidedness of the knockout bracket gives Group E favourites Belgium a greater incentive to win today - the winners of this group go into the other half of the draw, alongside England, Italy, Switzerland and Austria.

Belgium take on Ukraine in Stuttgart this evening having bounced back from an opening defeat to Slovakia with a 2-0 win over Romania. Ukraine also recovered from an opening defeat (0-3 v Romania) to take three points from their last game (2-1 v Slovakia). Their inferior goal difference means they should push for a win today - if this game is drawn, and so is the other Group E game, Ukraine will finish bottom of the group and go out.

With both teams incentivised to push for a win, we're hopeful this will be a game with a few goals. At either end of the pitch, there is raw attacking talent that can make good on the positive intentions of both sides. For Ukraine, Artem Dovbyk has shown what a finisher he can be in La Liga this season. For Belgium, Kevin DeBruyne reminded Europe what he can do against Romania. Then there are the Premier League flyers Mudryk and Doku.

Specifically, though, Romelu Lukaku should fancy his chances of getting off the mark at Euro 2024. Belgium's main man has had the ball in the back of the net three times at the tournament, but VAR has denied him each time. Having taken eight shots in total, he has an xG of 1.96. Instead of the odds-on prices about BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals, we'll take him to score legitimately today at an odds-against price. The longer price on DeBruyne, who has had eight shots at Euro 2024, and has netted in three of his last five international appearances, is also tempting.

Now read our Slovakia v Romania match preview here!