Thursday Football Tips: Follow the trend for an 8/1 punt

Andy Schooler
Published on 11 Nov 2021 at 09:58
Updated on 11 Nov 2021 at 11:06
1:30 min read

"Six of Jusino's eight cards have come in the first half and, again, six of the eight have been the first of the game."

Back Jusino first player to be shown a card @ 8/1

After landing a 9/2 winner in Brazil, our football props column is heading back to South America for an 8/1 shot on Thursday...

Peru v Bolivia
Thursday 11 November (02:00 GMT Fri)
Live on FreeSports and Betfair Live Video

Cards fly in a lot of South American World Cup qualifiers and this one on Thursday night looks to have potential for those who like to play the props markets.

Both Peru and Bolivia are close to drinking in the last-chance saloon in terms of qualification for Qatar 2022 - they sit five and four points off fifth place, the minimum required, with six games to play.

The contest should, therefore, be competitive and both sides have a good track record for cards - Bolivia have picked up 20+ booking points in 87% of their competitive games since the start of the last World Cup qualifying campaign, while Peru's figure is a far-from-shabby 71%.

Ref Eber Aquino is also a good one for cards. His four internationals have seen him produce 20 yellow cards and one red. Six of those were to Bolivians (across two games).

The 20+ booking points for each team can be backed at 3/4 as a single but there are player options too.

For Peru, defensive midfielder Renato Tapia will have his backers at 11/4 to be shown a card.

He's been carded in nine of his last 37 international starts and regularly attracts referees' attention for Celta Vigo in Spain. This season he's already collected five cards in 10 La Liga starts. That follows 12 in 32 last term.

But the bet I'm going to put up at a bigger price concerns Bolivia defender Adrian Jusino.

The centre-back has been carded in eight of his 21 international starts. Throw in the ref appointment and you can understand why he's just 7/5 for another in this clash.

However, look deeper and you'll find a trend for an early card - six of those eight have come in the first half and, again, six of the eight have been the first of the game.

So while 7/5 in the anytime card market might not appeal, there's clearly a decent case to back Jusino in the 'first card' market at 8/1.

Read Nathan Joyes' in-depth South American World Cup qualifiers preview

Recommended bets

Back Adrian Jusino to be the first player shown a card @ 9.08/1

Column 2021/22 P/L

Staked: 86pts
Returned: 109.48pts
P/L: +23.48pts

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