Football Bet of the Day: Don't Bank on visitors to pick up a win

• Smouha have lost just two of first ten

• National Bank in relegation danger

• Hosts can be backed with insurance

Smouha v National Bank
Tuesday 13 February, 17:00

It was a Spanish snooze-a-thon last night, as our boys Valladolid drew a blank in a goalless stalemate with struggling Albacete. We'll move on swiftly and zoom to Egypt, because the Egyptian Premier League is back in business after a six-week break, and we'll take in Smouha's clash with National Bank of Egypt.

Smouha have made a decent start to the league season, losing just two of their ten games so far. Those defeats were against Al Ittihad and Zamalek, losses that aren't hugely surprising (Al Ittihad were eighth last term, Zamalek third). Smouha have also lost just two of their last ten home games at the Alexandria Stadium.

While the xG data suggests Smouha are running slightly hot, they should have enough to take care of a National Bank team that has lost eight of eleven in the league this season. They did start to recover before the Christmas break, winning two games in a row, but both of those victories were against teams in the bottom six. If you look at National Bank's away record, they have won just three of their last 22 road matches in the top flight.

Smouha are the favourites here at 2.6813/8, and I think we can legitimately back them with a bit of insurance by using the Draw No Bet market at 1.845/6. If the hosts win, we win, but a draw sees our stake returned.