Red Bull Salzburg sprung an early shock in Group D a couple of weeks ago, but they might find Real Sociedad harder to surprise, says Tobias Gourlay
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Salzburg have scored in 11/12 CL group games at home
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Sociedad have netted in 8/9 on the road in Europe
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Back 1-1 Correct Score
Red Bull Salzburg v Real Sociedad
Tuesday 17:45 (Live on TNT Sports 4)
Red Bull Salzburg and Real Sociedad both outperformed expectations on matchday one of this season's Champions League - and will be looking to consolidate those decent starts on Tuesday evening.
Two weeks ago, Salzburg won 2-0 at Benfica - aided perhaps by a 13th-minute red card for the Portuguese. Sociedad led Inter Milan 1-0 for a long time in Spain before conceding a late equaliser and having to settle for a 1-1 draw.
Imanol Alguacil's visitors are slight favourites for this one. Since the Inter game, they have won 3/3 in La Liga. Their only defeat this season is a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu (W4-D4-L1 across La Liga and the CL).
Gerhard Struber's Salzburg are top of the Austrian Bundesliga, having gone W7-D1-L1 through the first nine rounds - though the defeat came in their most recent home appearance (1-0 to BW Linz).
The Austrian champions have been in the Champions League group stages every year since 2019. On their own patch, they are W6-D2-L4 in these games. Liverpool are the only group-stage visitors to stop them scoring in that run.
With the hosts managing just a couple of clean sheets themselves, backing both teams to score has been the right thing to do in 9/12. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 8/12 overall, but in only one of the last four.
Sociedad have been away from the Champions League for a decade. They played in the Europa League last season and won 3/3 group-stage away games without conceding a goal, including a 1-0 win at Old Trafford.
The visitors are W5-D3-L1 in Europa League group-stage away games since 2020. They've scored in 8/9, though only 2/9 have hit Over 2.5 Goals, as they've conceded in five times across those nine outings.
There's not enough here to suggest there will be fireworks in Salzburg on Tuesday evening, but both teams have excellent scoring records in similar games, so we're leaning towards BTTS.
Japanese winger Take Kubo has scored five in eight for Sociedad this season, notching on each of his last two appearances. The former Real Madrid wonderkid has caught Premier League eyes with his good form this term, and is averaging a couple of shots a game - more than any team mate.
He's 11/4 to score on the Sportsbook and looks the value pick for any Bet Builders. If you're anticipating a low-scoring game, the 15/2 about him to score first might also appeal.
Salzburg's dangerman is Roko Simic, who grabbed one goal from four shots against Benfica. The Croatian 20-year-old is 12/5 to find the net.
Sociedad are slight favourites, but Salzburg have got harder to beat on their own patch (one loss in six CL group games here) and a single goal might be enough for the hosts to get something from this match - given Sociedad's propensity for low-scorers.
At the longest price of the three possible results, the draw holds the appeal in the Match Outcome market - and 1-1 looks a worthy favourite in the Correct Score market. We'll take a punt on Sociedad to make it two 1-1s out of two in Group D.