Football Bet of the Day: Defences to dominate at the Dragao

• Both needed Matchday Eight wins to reach playoffs

• Both have made mid-season coaching changes

• Cagey game points towards unders bet

Porto v Roma
Thursday 13 February, 20:00
Live on Discovery+

Vangelis Pavlidis was a Greek bearing gifts for us last night, as his match-winning strike for Benfica in their 1-0 victory at Monaco gave us a winner at bigger than 2/1.

With more than three points of profit in the bank for this week, we'll head to Portugal, because Porto are up against Roma in the Europa League playoffs, and one of those big hitters is going to fall before the last 16.

Roma only secured their place in the playoff round with a final-matchday win over Eintracht Frankfurt, but veteran coach Claudio Ranieri deserves credit for rebuilding the season. Yes, the Giallorossi were overpowered recently by Milan in the Coppa Italia, but in the league they are unbeaten in eight, and I make them favourites to progress over two legs here.

Like Roma, Porto have had coaching upheaval this term. Sergio Conceicao's departure in the summer saw his assistant Vitor Bruno handed the reins, and he lasted just a few months. Argentinean coach Martin Anselmi, who won the Copa Sudamericana with unfashionable Ecuadorean club Independiente del Valle, has been given his first European gig.

Like Roma, Porto narrowly squeaked into the playoff round, and the loss of key midfielder Nico Gonzalez to Manchester City hasn't helped their cause. They showed good fighting spirit to hold title rivals Sporting to a 1-1 draw at the weekend, as Danny Namaso grabbed a last-gasp leveller in the fourth minute of stoppage time.

I like the look of Under 2.5 Goals here at 1.824/5. This feels like it will be cagey fare, with neither team wanting to open up too early. Ten of Porto's last 14 games have featured fewer than three goals, while seven of Roma's last 14 have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land. Six of Roma's eight league-phase games saw fewer than three goals, as did four of Porto's eight.

Now read Kev's preview of Brighton v Chelsea here!