Poland v Saudi Arabia: Lewy to bounce back

• Lewandowski with an outstanding international record

• Former Bayern star in superb club form

• Data shows Saudi win over Argentina was fortunate

Poland v Saudi Arabia
Saturday 26 November, 13:00
Live on ITV1

Although Netherlands v Ecuador was an enticing game that featured an early goal from Cody Gakpo, thankfully for us it ended 1-1, staying stubbornly under the 2.5 goals line. With a head of steam, we head to the clash between Poland and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis were the talk of the opening round of matches after their outstanding 2-1 win against a highly-fancied Argentina side, and footage of coach Hervé Renard's stirring half-time team talk has gone viral. However, let's not get too carried away here. Argentina should've been home and hosed by half time, but they lacked ruthlessness in attack, and Saudi Arabia scored two goals from an Infogol xG figure of just 0.16. They then defended for their lives, as Argentina huffed and puffed.

Although this Saudi group will be full of confidence, it makes sense that they would be outsiders here against Poland, and I think the Europeans can pick up a victory after their bore draw with Mexico. Poland were never really troubled by a toothless Mexican attack, and they spurned a golden opportunity to score, as star striker Robert Lewandowski had a penalty saved by veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa.

Lewandowski has never scored a World Cup finals goal, but I think he can put that right here. The former Bayern star has averaged nearly a goal a game in his first season at Barcelona, and he remains one of the best centre-forwards of his generation. The market has over-reacted to the Saudi heroics, and if someone had offered you odds of 2.35/4 pre-tournament for Lewandowski to score against Renard's team, I suspect you'd have snapped their hand off. Lewandowski's international record stands at 76 goals in 135 caps.

You could use the Bet Builder to combine a Poland win with a Lewandowski goal at 2.83183/100, but I'll just stick with Lewy to find the net.