Palmeiras v Corinthians: Back 14/1 shot in Sao Paulo derby

• Ref Sampaio averaging close to 7 cards per game

• Gil a major aerial threat from set plays

• Three-legged Bet Builder at around 14/1

Palmeiras v Corinthians
Saturday 29 April, 22:30

It's Saturday and so you're probably expecting something from the Premier League.

However, with only three games to choose from, I've failed to find anything I'm particularly confident about - and I've long loved a Brazilian derby.

Big rivalry

Sao Paulo is Brazil's biggest city and its biggest rivalry is between Palmeiras and Corinthians.

Admittedly, history shows it's not the feistiest of the Brazilian derbies - at least in terms of ill discipline - but you can still expect a few cards, especially with referee Wilton Sampaio in charge.

So far in the 2023 season, Sampaio is averaging around six yellows per game (122 in 21 matches), while he's also shown a remarkable 18 reds in those games.

Over 5.5 cards here is odds-against at 11/10 and there could well be some value in that.

In the player-card market, Corinthians centre-back Gil also looks a good price.

The 35-year-old has a strong card record in this fixture, receiving one in four of the last 10 Serie A derbies he's played in. He's also been booked in two of the last seven Paulista state championship meetings.

With Palmeiras dangerman Rony having returned to fitness, this could be a tough afternoon for the longest-serving Corinthians player, who clearly gets up for this game.

Set-piece threat

Finally, Gil 1+ shot is also looking good at odds-against.

He's one of their biggest set-piece threats and recently had three headed efforts at goal against Argentinos Juniors in the Copa Libertadores. He also managed two against Cruzeiro in the Serie A opener a couple of weeks ago.

Combine these three bets using the Bet Builder tool and you get close to 14/1 which looks worth a stab.

Saturday football cheat sheet: All the best bets in one place!