We're heading back to Greece, and Kev's backing one of the country's biggest clubs to have cup success.
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Aris lost at Olympiakos three days ago
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Hosts unbeaten since the World Cup
Olympiakos v Aris
Wednesday 18 January, 17:00
It was a tough one for us to take in Spain last night, as our Boys Alaves went down 1-0 to Sevilla in the Copa del Rey. Sevilla scored with their only shot on target, and Alaves dominated big swathes of the contest, but couldn't find a goal.
We'll stick with cup competitions, but switch to Greece, because Olympiakos are up against Aris in the Greek Cup, and I think the Athenian giants can win the first leg and take a big step towards progressing to the next stage.
Thessaloniki side Aris are having a strong season. They are sixth in the Greek Super League, and have only lost six of their 18 games. However, it's instructive to look at who they have been losing to. Aris have gone down 1-0 at PAOK, Panathinaikos and Olympiakos, and their defeat against the latter took place just three days ago. It appears that Aris are struggling to score goals against the country's big hitters, and former West Ham and Crystal Palace boss Alan Pardew hasn't yet found an answer to that predicament.
Olympiakos are surprisingly seven points behind fellow capital club Panathinaikos in the title race, but they are unbeaten since the World Cup break, with five wins and two draws in league and cup. Since the restart they have won all three of their home matches, thrashing Atromitos 4-1, sweeping aside Asteras Tripolis 5-0 and edging out Aris with a goal from Giorgos Masouras.
I think 1.84/5 is a generous price for a home win, and I'm happy to back it.