Football Bet of the Day: Flat-track bullies to scatter the chaff

• Lazio's last six Serie A wins have been against bottom-half teams

• Udinese only out of dropzone on goal difference

• Hosts still worth considering at odds-on

Lazio v Udinese
Monday 11 March, 19:45
Live on TNT Sports 1

Our chum Tobias had a profitable week with a frustrating ending, as Verona's 1-0 win at Lecce left him short of landing his BTTS bet. We'll leave him in Italy nursing an espresso, and we'll head off to Rome, because Lazio are in action against Udinese.

Lazio tumbled out of the Champions League a few days ago, as they were eventually swept aside 3-0 by Bayern Munich, losing 3-1 on aggregate. Ciro Immobile had a great chance with the score at 0-0, but the veteran striker's diving header was off target.

The form in Serie A isn't particularly good for the capital club either, but it's worth examining who they have been playing. Lazio have lost to Bologna, Milan, Atalanta and Fiorentina since the start of February, all teams that are in the current top eight. Maurizio Sarri's team are flat-track bullies really - their last six Serie A wins have all been against bottom-half teams.

Udinese pulled off a shock 1-0 win at Juventus recently, but they are still desperately fighting for survival. The Bianconeri are only outside the dropzone by virtue of goal difference, and they have won just three games all season. Either side of that victory in Turin, they lost away games at Atalanta and Genoa.

Lazio can still win the Coppa Italia, but they know they need to put a run of wins together in the league to have a chance of qualifying for Europe. The Romans have already won 2-1 at Udinese this season, and despite their recent struggles against top opposition, they do tend to beat the teams they are expected to beat.

Despite the absence through suspension of Matteo Guendouzi, Luca Pellegrini and Adam Marusic, I'll keep this simple and back Lazio to win at 1.9210/11.

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