Japan v Croatia: Magic Modric and co to progress

• Croatia have only leaked one goal

• Japan yet to keep a clean sheet

• Japan have had at least three shots on target in every game

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Japan v Croatia
Monday 05 December, 15:00
Live on BBC One

Weaknesses to exploit in Blue Samurai side

This has been a World Cup full of twists and turns, and many of those have been provided by the Blue Samurai of Japan.

Hajime Moriyasu's men have had one of the most curious group-stage campaigns in World Cup history - they beat European giants Spain and Germany, but somehow contrived to lose to a extremely limited Costa Rica side. Freiburg star Ritsu Doan proved to be a key player, striking equalisers against Germany and Spain.

There's no minimising Japan's achievement, but there are certainly weaknesses to exploit. In their opener, they were dominated for over an hour by Germany, and it was a lack of ruthlessness from Hansi Flick's side that kept them alive, before Doan and Takuma Asano sparked a comeback.

Against Costa Rica, the expectation and the occasion got to them in a 1-0 defeat. Their comeback against Spain was impressive, with a spurt involving two goals in three minutes, but they had just 26% possession and benefited from a goalkeeping blunder from Unai Simon.

Japan will be without defender Ko Itakura because of suspension, and the Blue Samurai are yet to keep a clean sheet so far. Goalkeeper Shuichi Gonda has had a mixed tournament - he has made some important saves, but has also had some shaky moments, including an error for Costa Rica's winner.

Experience key to Croatia gaining an edge

Croatia rode their luck in the goalless draw with Belgium that sealed their progress to the last 16, but the 2018 runners-up still have plenty to be pleased about.

They swept aside Canada 4-1 in a fine display, and they have one of the best midfields in the tournament, with Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic a superb blend of effort, quality and experience.

Croatia certainly know how to grind their way through a knockout tie. At the 2018 World Cup they beat Denmark and Russia on penalties, before overcoming England in extra time in the semi-final. In the Euros last year they came back from 3-1 down against an excellent Spain side to push the last-16 tie to extra time.

I think Croatia will control the game, and expose the flaws in the Japanese side, but the Blue Samurai will go down swinging.

I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Croatia to qualify and Japan to have three or more shots on target at 2.9215/8. Japan have had at least three efforts on target in each of their World Cup games so far.