Tuesday Football Tips: Fouls the focus in 17/1 Milan derby Bet Builder

Paul Higham
16 May 2023
1 min read

Martinez and Barella are backed for fouls in the Milan derby

Inter Milan vs AC Milan
Tue 16 May, 20:00

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Milan derbies are usually feisty, but Paul Higham expects that to go into overdrive in the Champions League semi-final second leg so has compiled a big-priced Bet Builder four-fold on fouls.

We saw 30 fouls in the first leg of the semi-final
12 players had 2+ fouls in the first leg last week
Back 17/1 four-fold Bet Builder on fouls in Milan derby

Inter Milan

AC Milan

Inter Milan 3 2 Atalanta
Fiorentina 1 2 Inter Milan
Napoli 3 1 Inter Milan
Inter Milan 1 0 AC Milan
Inter Milan 4 2 Sassuolo
AC Milan 0 2 Inter Milan

AC Milan 5 1 Sampdoria
Inter Milan 1 0 AC Milan
Spezia 2 0 AC Milan
AC Milan 0 2 Inter Milan
AC Milan 2 0 Lazio
AC Milan 1 1 Cremonese

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Tuesday 16 May, 20:00

Full stats

Inter huge favourites for the final

Games don't get much bugger than a huge Milan derby with a place in the Champions League final at stake - so this should be a barnburner.

Inter have a 2-0 lead, have won seven games on the spin and beaten their rivals three times on the spin without conceding a goal.

It's also Inter's turn to have their fans pack the stadium so the fact they're 1/20 to qualify for the final doesn't come as a great surprise.

Four clean sheets in five Champions League knockout ties so far suggests that Inter should have few problems seeing this through.

You can read Mark O'Haire's match preview as we're skipping the outright markets as we like to do and focusing on the stats and player prop elements.

Fouls galore at the San Siro

While goals, shots and corners were in short supply in the first leg, we had 30 fouls and we could at least match that here as the game goes on.

Inter had 16 fouls in the first leg, and have had at least 11 in their last nine while Milan have had double figures in eight of 10, so it's not exactly a one-off.

So with such volume coming quite regularly we can look for a big one here so let's put together a four-fold with players with potential for giving away plenty of fouls.

Lautaro Martinez should start up front for Inter, leads the team in fouls and has had 2, 3, 4 and 2 in four games against Milan this season.

Team-mate Hakan Calhanoglu had four fouls in the first leg, has multiple fouls in five of his past six and 2+ fouls in all four Milan derbies this season.

While both of those are big odds-on shots for 2+ fouls in this game, Nicolo Barella is a more generous 8/5 and Fikayo Tomori the pick of the prices at 11/5.

Barella will be in that midfield battle and has had multiple fouls in three of four Milan derbies (2,5,2,1 fouls) this season, while Tomori has done the same in two of three against Inter.

The Milan centre back was booked and had two fouls in the first leg, and with the "visitors" having to force the issue he'll have plenty of counter attacks to deal with.

Back Tomori, Martinez, Barella & Calhanoglu 2+ fouls each

17/1

COLUMN P/L FOR 2022/23

Staked: 300pts
Returned: 342.06pts
P/L: +42.66pts

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