Football Bet of the Day: Finns to fly into group phase

• HJK strong at home

• KI may have blown best chance

• Hosts seem good value for win at 2.1411/10

HJK v KI
Thursday 29 August, 17:00

Hamrun Spartans had to battle back from a deficit in Malta last night, but then Spartans are used to battles, and they did the trick for us with a hard-fought 2-1 victory against Melita. That's three winners from three this week, so with a spring in our step we head to Finland. HJK Helsinki are in action against Faroese outfit KI, and I fancy the hosts to win the second leg.

KI produced heroics in the Champions League last term, knocking out Hungarian giants Ferencvaros and Swedish side Häcken before eventually falling short against Molde in the UCL qualifiers and then Sheriff Tiraspol in the Europa League. In the Conference League group stage they understandably found it tough, losing four of their six matches.

This season, the Faroese champions were beaten by Malmö in the Champions League qualifiers and Borac Banja Luka in the UEL. Despite playing most of the first leg against HJK with ten men, they nearly produced a famous win, only for the Finns to find a late leveller.

I can't help feeling that KI have missed their big chance. HJK have won nine of their last 13 home games in all competitions, and they haven't conceded a goal in any of their last four outings at the Bolt Arena. Their home performances in the group stage last term were at least respectable - they pushed PAOK (2-3) and Eintracht Frankfurt (0-1), and held Aberdeen to a 2-2 draw.

I just think 2.1411/10 is a generous price for a home win here, given HJK's greater resources and European experience.

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