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Heidenheim in poor form in the Bundesliga
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Kramaric has already netted five top-flight goals this term
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Heidenheim v Hoffenheim
Sunday 27 October, 18:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
Another frustrating day for us yesterday, as our man Serhou Guirassy set up an early goal for Donyell Malen, but didn't have a single chance to score himself, as fragile Borussia Dortmund lost 2-1 at Augsburg.
We'll stick with the Bundesliga, because European combatants Heidenheim and Hoffenheim are set to lock horns, and I'll back a visiting striker to find the net.
Heidenheim are a remarkable club. Last term was their first ever season in the top flight, and yet they managed to qualify for Europe. Heidenheim-born coach Frank Schmidt has been in charge for 17 years, and continues to work miracles for a club from a town of just 50,000 people.
In the Conference League, Heidenheim have won both of their league phase matches, overcoming Olimpija and Pafos. In the Bundesliga they are understandably a bit more up and down, and they have lost four of their last five.
Hoffenheim are struggling in the league, but did boost their campaign last weekend with a 3-1 win over Bochum. Record scorer Andrej Kramaric netted the opener in that game, and the Croatian has five goals already this season. Hoffenheim played well at Porto in midweek, having more shots than the Portuguese giants, but they slipped to a 2-0 defeat.
The markets are expecting goals here, with Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS odds-on, so I'll take a different tack and back Kramaric to score at a hefty 2.89/5 on the Exchange. Backing him at odds-against worked for me last week, and I actually think Hoffenheim are generally playing better than their results suggest.