Stuttgart won first leg 3-0
HSV set for consecutive playoff defeats
Hamburg v Stuttgart
Monday 05 June, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
A blank in Brazil for our Tobias last night, as Goias' 1-0 win over Cuiaba left him a couple of goals short, so he's off for a caipirinha and a dance to take his mind off it. We'll start our week in Germany, because Hamburg are staring down the barrel of yet another promotion-based disaster, but I think they'll go down swinging against Stuttgart.
Hamburg were beaten in last season's relegation playoff by Hertha Berlin, despite winning the first leg, and this time around they don't have a first-leg advantage to defend. HSV were smashed 3-0 at Stuttgart, with the Bundesliga club taking full control of the tie.
Since their first ever relegation from the Bundesliga in 2018, Hamburg have had a series of near-misses when it comes to promotion, but this was the cruellest. On the final matchday of the regular season, Heidenheim needed to win to pip Hamburg to a promotion spot, and goals in the 93rd and 99th minutes helped them do just that. That crushing blow seemed to really affect Tim Walter's team on Thursday, as they conceded a first-minute goal in Stuttgart and never truly recovered.
Stuttgart have been revitalised by the arrival of coach Sebastian Hoeness, who has delivered some impressive results on the road, including vital regular-season wins at Mainz and Bochum. Stuttgart have now scored in nine of their last ten away games in the league, with a BTTS bet landing in all nine.
We'll use the BTTS market to kick off our Bet Builder, adding in Over 8.5 Corners and Over 2.5 Cards to give us a price of 2.486/4. There were ten corners in the first leg, and Hamburg's league games this term average just over nine flag kicks. There were 20 fouls in a combative game on Thursday, and I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Hamburg's frustration might get the better of them.