Football Bet of the Day: Hosts won't be Hammared

Top-flight tussle to go against visitors

Gothenburg v Hammarby
Monday 15 August, 18:10

Our Tobias got a push in the USA overnight, as Minnesota's 2-1 win at Nashville didn't quite land the Over 3.0 Goals bet. He can reflect on the week in the home of country music, and if he hasn't written a maudlin song about an acca being let down on the final leg by the end of the week, I'll want to know why.

We'll kick off our week in Sweden, because traditional giants IFK Gothenburg are up against Hammarby, and I'm not sure the visitors should be odds-on.

Hammarby (who are part owned by their former player Zlatan Ibrahimovic) are third in the top-flight Allsvenskan, just four points off top spot. They have won ten of their 17 games, and they are on a run of four wins in five. However, on the road life isn't so sweet for the team from Stockholm. Marti Cifuentes' side has lost three of the last four league matches away from home.

Gothenburg (or Goteborg if you prefer) are only three points behind this evening's opponents, and they have won their last three matches. On home soil they have won three of the last four, and they have kept clean sheets in all three of those victories. Although they lost the away game 3-0 at Hammarby, they drew 0-0 at home with them last August.

I don't think there's as much to choose between the sides as the market is suggesting here (Gothenburg average 1.72 xGF at home, Hammarby 1.82 away, while the xGA figures are similar too), and I'm happy to get the home win and the draw on our side by simply laying the visitors at 1.9520/21.