Football Bet of the Day: Black Forest bedlam

• Union won this fixture 4-1 last season
• Both defences have looked tired in recent games
• Union have leaked seven goals in last two matches

Freiburg v Union Berlin
Sunday 13 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

It feels fitting that the final Bundesliga game of 2022 should be between two sides who have significantly punched above their weight throughout the year. Both qualified for the Europa League against all odds last term, and both have reached the knockout phase of the tournament. Not only that, but both have managed to juggle the demands of domestic and international competition, and both are in the mix for European qualification again.

At the heart of that success is a pair of stellar coaches who are widely respected in the German game. Christian Streich has spent over a decade at the helm of Freiburg, and even when the club was relegated a few seasons ago, he stuck with them and dragged them back into the top flight at the first attempt. At Union, Urs Fischer has taken the Eisern into the top flight for the first time in the Bundesliga era, and he gave them European football for the first time in 20 years. His unfussy, undemonstrative demeanour gives the club a certain solidity, and it's very much a team carved in his image.

The market expects this to be a tough battle with goals at a premium, but I'm not so sure, and I like the look of backing Over 2.5 Goals here at 2.35/4. Union have looked a little tired in recent games - they lost 5-0 at Bayer Leverkusen last Sunday, and then drew 2-2 at home to Augsburg. Freiburg have also seen a few of their recent games end up being a bit more chaotic than they would like - four of the last seven have featured at least three goals, and overall seven of their 14 league matches have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. Three of the clubs' last six meetings have contained at least three goals, including Union's 4-1 win in this fixture last term.