Football Bet of the Day: Reeling Rafa to feel the pain again

• Celta without a win in 10 in La Liga

• Hosts too short at odds-on

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Celta Vigo v Cadiz
Monday 04 December, 20:00
Live on Viaplay Sports 1

It was a case of Danish disappointment for our Tobias yesterday, as Odense held his boys Nordsjaelland to a 1-1 draw. As he puts on an extra layer to guard against the cold, we'll head somewhere slightly warmer, because Celta Vigo are up against Cadiz in the north of Spain.

Celta and their experienced manager Rafa Benitez have had a hugely frustrating season so far. They have been denied a number of positive results by controversial VAR calls or late goals conceded, and they have gone ten La Liga games without a victory. At Balaidos, the northern club have won just two of their last thirteen top-flight matches stretching back into last season.

This poor run of form has seen Celta slip into the relegation zone, so tonight's clash with Cadiz is critically important. The visitors are three points and one place better off, and what's interesting for us tonight is that their away form is steadily improving. Although they haven't won an away game in the league since April, if you look at their recent trips, there are some decent displays. Cadiz went 2-0 up at Atletico Madrid before losing 3-2, they drew at both Real Betis and Mallorca, and in Barcelona they were holding the champions to a goalless draw until the 82nd minute, before a late collapse.

Celta have the greater quality man-for-man, but they haven't really been able to show that this season, and I think they are a bit too short at 1.625/8. You could back Cadiz +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.8810/11, but I'll go a bit further and just lay the hosts.