Foals winning consistently at home
Wolves have lost six on the spin away from home
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Wolfsburg
Tuesday 05 December, 19:45
Live on ViaPlay Sports 1
It was a case of profit a-go-go in Vigo last night, as we took on odds-on favourites Celta Vigo, and they drew 1-1 with Cadiz. We'll head to Germany now, because we've reached the last 16 of the DFB Pokal, and there's an intriguing tie in prospect between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Wolfsburg.
Gladbach made a slow start to the season under new coach Gerardo Seoane, but they have hit their stride in recent weeks, especially at home. The Fohlenelf have claimed victory in their last five competitive home matches, including the weekend's 2-1 win over Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga.
Homegrown hero Rocco Reitz, born in Duisburg but a Gladbach club member since birth, has been in excellent form. Speedy forward Nathan Ngoumou looked lively against Hoffenheim, and grabbed a late winner. The Foals smashed tonight's opponents Wolfsburg 4-0 last month in the Bundesliga, and they are unbeaten against them in the clubs' last eight competitive meetings, a run that goes back to 2019.
However, it's also worth bearing in mind that Wolfsburg coach Niko Kovac is something of a DFB Pokal specialist. He led Eintracht Frankfurt to the final in 2017 and 2018, winning the latter showpiece against Bayern Munich. He then joined Bayern the following season, and won the cup again.
Wolfsburg aren't in great form on their travels - they have lost their last six away games in all competitions - and they are leaking far too many goals away from the Volkswagen Arena. We could back the hosts to win inside 90 minutes at 2.1411/10, but I'm going to tweak things and go for Gladbach/Draw and Over 2.5 Goals on the Bet Builder at 2.021/1. That means if the game ends in a high scoring draw and goes to extra time, we would still pick up a winner, and given that neither team is rock solid, we might need that insurance.