Wales v Poland: Cards make sense in play-off final

• Midfielder carded in 3 of 5 competitive starts for Wales

• Wilson SOT has landed in 8 of his last 9 starts

• Back Bet Builder double at around 4/15.00

• Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here

Wales v Poland
Tuesday 26 March, 19:45
Live on Viaplay Sports 2 & S4C

There were plenty of cards shown in Thursday's Euro 2024 play-off semi-finals and the appointment of referee Daniele Orsato for this final is certainly eye-catching.

The Italian has long been one of the best officials for cards in the UEFA club competitions - he's shown 4+ cards in 35 of his last 47 such matches - while his international-level record also stands up well with the 4+ mark hit in eight of his last 10.

With a place in this summer's finals in Germany at stake, this has all the hallmarks of a battle royale and with both sides having regularly been towards the top of the card charts in recent years, a few bookings can be expected.

Sadly, the markets look clued up - 7+ cards is just 11/10 - but it's worth a look at the player-card market.

Wales striker Kieffer Moore has been the punters' pal in this market for several years - and he was booked again during Thursday's win over Finland.

However, that appearance was as a substitute and it's hard to see boss Rob Page making many - if any - changes to his side following that impressive 4-1 victory.

If he does start, 11/43.75 will appeal.

However, with this column been on the wrong end of another late substitute appearance on Monday night, it's certainly not worth the risk putting Moore up now.

Leg 1: Jordan James to be shown a card

Jordan James looks a decent alternative.

The teenage midfielder has started the last seven Wales internationals. Notably, he's been carded in three of his five competitive starts.

The Birmingham star will be playing arguably the biggest match of his life and certainly isn't averse to a challenge.

Essentially, James has a strong card record (he's also been booked eight times for his club this season), remains a pretty inexperienced player and will be competing on the big stage where a card-happy ref will be in charge.

9/52.80 isn't a mouthwatering price but it makes the cut.

Leg 2: Harry Wilson 1+ shot on target

I'll double that up with Harry Wilson to have a shot on target.

The Fulham man has managed that in eight of his last nine international starts and has been the man leading the way on the shot count for Wales in recent times.

He managed three shots on target against Finland last week, repeating his feat at home to Croatia from earlier in the campaign.

8/111.73 about at least one here looks a spot of value.

The Bet Builder pays around 4/15.00.

Euro 2024 guide: Everything you need to know!