Sporting Lisbon v Benfica: Expect card chaos in derby

• 7+ cards has landed in 13 of last 15 Libson derbies

• Kokcu was a card regular in the big Dutch games

• Back Bet Builder at around 4/1 in Cup SF

• Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here

Sporting Lisbon v Benfica
Thursday 29 February, 20:45

Cards punters rejoice - it's the Lisbon derby on Thursday!

This has been one of Europe's most chaotic fixtures for many years, with the matches between Portugal's 'Big Three' well known for producing some ridiculously high card counts.

Leg 1: 7 or more cards in the match

In this particular fixture, there have been at least seven shown in 13 of the last 15.

With that in mind, 7+ cards at 10/111.91 quickly goes into our Bet Builder.

OK, nothing will really be decided in this game - it's the first leg of a Portuguese Cup semi-final - but I very much doubt that will stop the tackles flying in and things getting a bit narky at some stage.

The referee is certainly a decent appointment for those looking for flashes of yellow and red.

Fabio Verissimo is eighth (of 26) when it comes to bookings in the Portuguese league this season, averaging 5.27 per game.

This will be the third time he's taken charge of the Lisbon derby - 13 cards were shown across the first two - and the sixth occasion he's refereed a 'Big Three' battle. In total, five of the six have landed the 7+ cards bet.

Leg 2: Orkun Kokcu to be shown a card

With that leg looking solid base, it's also worth perusing the player-card market, given we can be fairly sure there will be several players finding their way into the book.

Unsurprisingly, some card regulars are pretty short.

Two are odds-on, while Sporting skipper Sebastian Coates is just 5/42.25, although seven cards in 16 appearances in this derby suggest that's actually about right.

However, that doesn't mean there's not value to be had and the man who's caught my eye is Benfica's Orkun Kokcu at 21/103.10.

The Turkish midfielder, carded seven times in 25 starts for Benfica (including four in his last eight), will be playing in his first Lisbon derby but his record in this type of fixture should fill his backers with confidence.

Kokcu joined Benfica from Feyenoord last summer with the Dutch league another featuring a 'Big Three' with huge rivalry between the trio.

Notably, Kokcu was carded in four of seven games against PSV Eindhoven, and three of five against Ajax.

Putting him in a double with 7+ total cards produces a price of just under 4/15.00.

While it would be easy to get carried away and chase bigger odds, that price looks decent enough to me.

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