Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid: Back bad boy Bellingham

• Bellingham booked in 7 of his last 11 games

• Rudiger 2+ shots has landed in all of his Madrid derbies

• Back Bet Builder double at around 8/19.00

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Sunday 4 February, 20:00
Live on Viaplay Sports 1

The Madrid derby returned to its card-laden ways a couple of weeks ago when no fewer than 12 were shown as Atletico won 4-2, after extra time, in the Copa del Rey.

Leg 1: Jude Bellingham to be shown a card

Among those booked that night was Jude Bellingham and he looks the value play in the card market for this renewal, which comes in La Liga.

The England international has enjoyed huge success in his first season at the Bernabeu but he's also been attracted referees' attention and he comes into this contest having been carded in seven of his last 11 matches.

In three meetings with Atletico this season (two of which Real have lost), Bellingham has been booked in two of them.

You also wonder if the Spanish FA investigation opened over a comment made towards Mason Greenwood in midweek will play a part - Atleti usually waste little time in getting in an opponent's head over thing like that.

There's a good referee for cards in charge on Sunday night - Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez came into the weekend with the third-best card average in La Liga; he's shown exactly six per game.

Meanwhile, his only previous Madrid derby saw him produce 10 cards, albeit that Supercopa contest did go to extra time.

In short, Bellingham to be carded at 9/52.80 looks a decent price.

Leg 2: Antonio Rudiger 2+ shots

I'm going to double him up with Antonio Rudiger for 2+ shots after spotting an interesting trend.

Rudiger's five starts in this fixture have all seen him land this bet.

Now, admittedly, that's a small enough data sample for it to be written off as a co-incidence.

Yet, it could also be significant. Perhaps Rudiger's mindset is that he wants to make a statement in a big game like this - anyone who watched him regularly at Chelsea will know that he loves to drive forward and let fly with a spectacular shot now and again.

There's also the set-piece threat he provides and that's an area where the data shows Atletico have a bit of a weak spot. Only two sides have conceded more shots from set-plays this season in La Liga.

With all this in mind, Rudiger for 2+ shots again looks worth adding to the Bellingham card bet to produce a Bet Builder at close to 8/19.00.

The one worry is the German's fitness. He is a doubt for this game, although the Spanish press do largely expect him to start. However, at least he'll either start or won't play at all - there's little danger of being stitched up by him coming on as a late sub.

I was tempted to go bigger.

Vinicius Junior is again one of the most-fouled players in La Liga and looks sure to trouble whoever plays at right wing-back for Atleti.

However, it's hard to know for sure who that man will be with Marcos Llorente and Nahuel Molina vying for the spot.

If you wait for the line-ups, adding the man who starts for 1+ or 2+ fouls looks a decent play.

More Real v Atleti: Read Jamie Kemp's big-match verdict!