Bet of the Day

Olympiakos v Fiorentina: Back 11/2 Bet Builder in UECL final

Fiorentina and Argentina forward Nicolas Gonzalez
Nicolas Gonzalez: Loves a shot

Our football props column has scoured the data and picked out an 11/2 Bet Builder for Wednesday's Europa Conference League final...


Olympiakos v Fiorentina
Wednesday 29 May, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

The statistic that stands out the most when looking at these two teams is Fiorentina's propensity for taking shots.

They lead the Europa Conference League for shots, having had 251 of them in their 12 games. Factoring in extra time, they've had 20.5 shots every 90 minutes.

That's a very high figure and to put it into perspective, Aston Villa, who sit second in the competition's shots list, had only 155 in their 12 matches.

Leg 1: Fiorentina 6+ corners

Sadly, we've got no shots markets here - only shots on target which is a considerably different metric - but there's still a way of taking advantage.

It's a fair comment that shots lead to corners and I'm keen to side with the Italians in this market.

They've managed at lest six in seven of their last 10 UECL games, while Olympiakos have conceded 6+ in their last four.

Attack-minded Fiorentina look set to have more of the ball - Olympiakos were happy to let Villa have plenty of it in their semi-final and still won handsomely - and I'm happy to back them for 6+ corners at evens.

Leg 2: Nicolas Gonzalez 1+ shot on target

The next leg of our Bet Builder features those shots on target where Nicolas Gonzalez is the Italians' biggest threat.

He's managed a SOT in his last eight appearances and eight of his nine starts since the March international break. Across those matches he's taken a whopping 38 shots in total.

Gonzalez also draws plenty of fouls - at least two in 12 of his last 15 starts - and that leads us onto two more bets, both in the fouls market.

Leg 3: Francisco Ortega 1+ foul

With Gonzalez playing down the right, the Olympiakos left-back is likely in for a tough night.

The problem for punters is knowing who will play there.

First-choice Francisco Ortega is battling to be fit - he hasn't played since limping off at Villa Park in the semis - but he looks worth taking a chance on.

If he's not fit, surely he doesn't make the matchday squad at all and our bet will simply be reduced to three legs instead of four.

If he does start, then 8/131.61 about him committing a foul looks good given his direct opponent and the fact he's conceded one in five of his last six starts in this competition.

Leg 4: Rodinei 1+ foul

Finally, I'm going to add his fellow full-back Rodinei for 1+ foul.

The Brazilian has landed that bet in six of his last seven, committing multiple fouls in four of those.

He's set to go up against the tricky Christian Kouame and it's not hard to see him dragging a foul out of his marker.

The four legs combine for an 11/26.50 shot, one which drops to 3/14.00 if Ortega doesn't make it.


More UECL final: Dave Tindall's in-depth preview - and 22/1 shot!


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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 267pts
Returned: 296.86pts
P/L: +29.86pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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