Luton v Manchester City: Clean up with 27/1 Bet Builder

• Under 3.5 cards landed in 12 of 16 FA Cup R4 ties

• Both teams in top 6 of Premier League fair-play table

• No-card game looks big at 27/1

• Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here

Luton v Manchester City
Tuesday 27 February, 20:00
Live on ITV1 and Betfair Live Video

I'm prepared to give my FA Cup low-cards theory one final outing for the season on Tuesday night when Luton host Manchester City.

Admittedly, we're probably going to need a comfortable City victory but the visitors are odds-on to win by two clear goals and given relegation-threatened Luton may well be holding back players for Saturday's crunch home league game with Aston Villa, there's every chance the holders progress with something to spare.

On average, the card count is considerably lower in the FA Cup than in Premier League and EFL games and you only have to look back to round four to see that.

Of the 16 ties, 12 saw under 3.5 cards, while there was one with no cards at all. The latter also occurred in Monday night's fifth-round cakewalk for Coventry against Maidstone.

Both are potential angles here.

Bet 1: Under 3.5 cards

Now, things tend to get more competitive as Wembley looms into view but I'm happy to stick with the theory at this last-16 stage when there are still sure to be plenty of team changes.

In Luton and City, we have two of the top six in the Premier League fair-play table going head-to-head and they managed a three-card game when they met at Kenilworth Road in the league back in December.

Bet 2: Both teams under 0.5 cards

The potential problem is referee Anthony Taylor, averaging just over five cards per game in the Premier League this season.

Yet there have also been good signs - two of Taylor's last 13 games have seen no cards at all, including Wigan v Manchester United in the FA Cup. Five of the other 11 have landed the under 3.5 cards too.

The betting approach is therefore two-fold - two-thirds of the stake on under 3.5 cards, ensuring a small profit if it lands.

The other third goes on both teams under 0.5 cards Bet Builder which gives you a whopping 27/128.00.

Now read Paul Higham's Luton v Man City preview!