Luton v Arsenal: Side with Saka in 3/1 Bet Builder

• Saka has a goal or assist in 15 of 19 starts this season

• Barkley 2+ shots has landed in 6 of his 7 starts

• Back Bet Builder double at around 3/14.00

Luton v Arsenal
Tuesday 5 December, 20:15
Live on Amazon Prime Video

Lowly Luton - outside the drop zone only thanks to Everton's points deduction - take on leaders Arsenal in the Premier League on Tuesday.

Still, Luton's recent record suggests getting with the Hatters on the handicap may be worthwhile.

They can be backed at odds-against getting a two-goal start and they've covered that in 10 of their last 12 league games - unlike Sheffield United, no-one has been given them a pasting with the two games failing to deliver in that run being two-goal losses.

That bet is tempting but the underlying data regarding Luton is rather off-putting.

At close to 36, their expected goals against (xGA) total is the league's highest and, notably, is almost 10 higher than the actual number of goals they've conceded. That's the biggest such gap in the top flight.

Leg 1: Bukayo Saka to score or assist

Clearly Arsenal have the ability to punish that leaky backline - they will go five points clear at the top if they win this - and with that in mind, I'm keen to side with Bukayo Saka.

The England international continues to improve and his numbers this season have been superb.

He's scored or assisted in 15 of his 19 starts in all competitions and while he's a fairly short price to land that again in this game, you can very much understand why.

Throw in the fact that Luton defenders Tom Lockyer and Teden Mengi are both doubtful after being forced off at the weekend and Saka to score or assist gets the nod.

Leg 2: Ross Barkley 2+ shots

I'll double that up with a bet on Luton in the form of Ross Barkley shots.

The former England midfielder has hit 2+ shots in six of his seven starts since joining the Hatters and while clearly these are tough, defensively-strong opponents, Barkley has already landed this in games against Liverpool and Aston Villa, two of the other top four.

Barkley likes a shot from distance and it's hard not to see him having a go from range if Luton are struggling to get the breakthrough.

Some will be put off by Arsenal's defensive solidity, but Luton have managed shots, especially at home where they've struck 12+ in four of six games. Even against Liverpool they still had eight.

If they do likewise here, expect Barkley to be involved.

The Bet Builder double pays close to 3/14.00.

More on Luton v Arsenal: Read Mike Norman's in-depth preview