Bet of the Day

Botafogo v Atletico Mineiro: Cards on the menu in Brazil

Atletico Mineiro midfielder or defender Rodrigo Battaglia
Rodrigo Battaglia: Strong card record

Our football props column is backing cards in Brazil's top flight on Sunday night...


Botafogo v Atletico Mineiro
Sunday 7 July, 00:30 (Mon, BST)

They love a card, or three, in Brazil and Sunday night's game in Rio de Janeiro looks well poised for them.

Botafogo are the fourth-best in Serie A in card terms and while Mineiro's figures aren't quite so impressive, the fact they've seen a league-high six reds (in just 13 games) helps show how ill-disciplined they can be.

A key factor in card betting is the referee and we've got a good one here with Rafael Rodrigo Klein averaging 6.67 yellows per game across his six Serie A matches this season and showing three reds too.

If that sample is too small, it's worth noting that he averaged well over six cards per match last season, too.

In short, there's plenty to like about cards.

Leg 1: Rodrigo Battaglia to be shown a card

The other day, this column's dip into the Brasileiro featured a match which saw 12 yellows. Frustratingly, the man we highlighted for one missed out but hopefully we can have some better luck in the player-card market here.

To start with, let's back the visitors' Rodrigo Battaglia.

He's been carded in eight of his 26 starts this season but those figures get better (for punters) when we filter down his record at centre-back, a position he's been moved into in recent weeks.

Playing in the backline, Battaglia has been carded in four of nine appearances and so he gets the nod here.

Leg 2: Danilo Barbosa to be shown a card

I'm going to double him up with Botafogo midfielder Danilo Barbosa, who looks to provide value at 3/14.00.

He's received nine cards in 29 appearances in 2024 - seven in 21 starts.

Those figures hint at the potential problem in backing him - he's been a sub in the last couple of games.

However, Barbosa has been a mainstay of the side in the Copa Libertadores, the priority for most South American sides, but with that midweek competition now paused until the knockout stage begins in next month, he may well return to the starting XI here.

The double pays just over 9/110.00.

However, with the potential for Barbosa to be on the bench again, let's try a back-up double and split the stakes evenly between the two bets.

A Battaglia card combined with over 5.5 cards in the match - something which has landed in 17 of Klein's 23 games in all competitions this season - gives us odds of 12/53.40.


Euro 2024: England 9/4 second-favourites ahead of Dutch SF


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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 303pts
Returned: 320.31pts
P/L: +17.31pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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