Bet of the Day

Bolton v Oxford: Take punt with 29/1 Bet Builder

Northern Ireland and Oxford defender Ciaron Brown
Ciaron Brown: Offers set-piece threat for Oxford

After a slice of bad fortune on Friday, our football props column is shooting for the stars at Wembley on Sauturday with a 29/1 punt...

Bolton v Oxford
Saturday 18 May, 16:15
Live on Sky Sports Football and Main Event

Look, I can't profess to be an expert on League One but there's a dearth of games with much at stake in them on Saturday's coupon so it's to the Wembley encounter I'm turning.

And I do feel there are a couple of value bets to be had, even if they do combine for what you'd call a proper punt.

Leg 1: Ciaron Brown to score

Let's start for Oxford's Ciaron Brown, a defender who is set to start at left-back.

He's a real threat at set-pieces and will also get forward down the flank.

That combination has already delivered five League One goals for the Northern Irish international this season and he's managed three shots on target in his last five games.

Admittedly, Oxford are yet to score in their two games against Bolton this season but that increases the chance of them having focused on set-plays over the 10 days since their semi-final success.

Notably, only three sides in the third tier have had more shots from set-pieces this season than Oxford, while only four teams had a higher set-piece expected goals against (SP xGA) figure than Wanderers.

In short, Brown certainly has potential to score at juicy odds of 11/112.00.

Leg 2: Tyler Goodrham 2+ fouls

To complete our Bet Builder, I'm going to add Oxford's attacking midfielder Tyler Goodrham for 2+ fouls.

He moved into a more central role after the U's following their 5-0 hammering at Bolton in March and he's since landed this bet in four of his eight starts, including three of his last four.

Overall, Goodrham has delivered for his backers in this market in six of his last 10 starts and that makes quotes of 11/82.38 look decent.

The one issue is he limped out of the semi-final second leg against Peterborough just over a week ago and boss Des Buckingham wasn't commenting on Goodrham's injury status at his press conference the other day.

Now, Friday's column highlighted the problem of backing a player who eventually only makes the bench - and duly comes on to ruin your bet - so there's definitely a need to be wary here.

However, given this is an injury concern, it would appear unlikely he's taking up a seat on the bench if he isn't fit.

With that in mind, I'll add Goodrham 2+ fouls to the Bet Builder, which pays close to 30/131.00, knowing that if he doesn't get on at all, it will simply become a punt on Brown scoring.

More L1 PO Final: Read Alan Dudman's in-depth preview

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 258pts
Returned: 280.36pts
P/L: +22.36pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts


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