Football Bet of the Day: Red Bulls to be caged tonight

• Augsburg on best run of form this term

• Leipzig horrendous on the road

• Back hosts to avoid defeat at 1.84/5

Augsburg v RB Leipzig
Friday 14 February, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports

It was a nervy wait, as Under 2.5 Goals bets tend to be, but Porto's battling 1-1 draw with Roma did the trick for us last night. We're already guaranteed a profit for the week, and we'll head to Germany for our Friday night entertainment.

Augsburg are on their best run of the season, having collected 11 points from their last five matches. It's a sequence that has eased any relegation fears, and there's even the potential for a late stab at European qualification. Coach Jess Thorup is doing a fine job for a club that wants to establish itself in the top half of the table on a regular basis.

Augsburg aren't exactly thrill-a-minute in attack, as they have the lowest xG in the division, but players like Samuel Essende, Alexis Claude-Maurice and Philip Tietz help them make a lot out of a little. At the other end, Augsburg are very well organized, and centre-backs Keven Schlotterbeck, Chrislain Matsima and Jeffrey Gouweleeuw are all in good form.

RB Leipzig are having a largely disappointing season. They could still win the DFB Pokal (they have a quarter-final coming up against Wolfsburg) but their Champions League campaign was a total disaster, and in the league they are only a point ahead of Stuttgart in the race for Champions League qualification.

Away from home, RBL's form has been horrendous. They have won just one of their last ten on the road in all competitions, and that was at second-bottom Holstein Kiel. Die Roten Bullen have lost seven of those ten road matches, and there are rumblings about the future of coach Marco Rose.

There's no doubt that Leipzig have the better quality (attacking stars Benjamin Sesko and Xavi are always potential match-winners), but they aren't showing that away from home, and Augsburg have only lost three times at the WWK Arena all season. The prices seem too skewed in Leipzig's favour, so let's back Augsburg/Draw Double Chance at 1.84/5.

Now read Kev's other Bundesliga tips here!