La Liga Tips: Madrid sides to pass tough tests in Gameweek 10

Benzema Real Madrid Shakhtar
Real Madrid go into the Clásico off the back of a big European win

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions ahead of the first Clásico of the season...

"There's less separating Barcelona and Real Madrid than there might be as we approach the season's first Clásico, but the visitors are still favourites based on Infogol's model."

Osasuna to keep up pressure on top four

Osasuna v Granada
Friday, 20:00
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Osasuna's win at Villarreal last weekend accentuated their surprise package status, and they have a chance to go joint-top with a victory at El Sadar on Friday night. Jagoba Arrasate's team have been stronger away than at home this season, but the visit of a Granada side averaging just 0.65 xGF on the road can be enough for the hosts to claim a sixth victory in 10 league games.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.808/1

Valencia to end winless run

Valencia v Mallorca
Saturday, 13:00
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Despite taking an early lead at Camp Nou last week, Valencia failed to put up much of a fight in their eventual defeat to Barcelona. That made it five games without a win, but there have been some solid performances amidst that run and Infogol's model still makes them the favourites against a Mallorca side coming off three straight away defeats with one goal scored and nine conceded in that spell.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.6015/2

Alavés to sneak first away win of the season

Cádiz v Alavés
Saturday, 15:15
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Alavés can't have too many complaints about their lowly league position, especially given their 0.98 xGF average, and last season's 3-1 loss at Ramón de Carranza was the last straw for then-manager Pablo Machin. Two bosses later and Javier Calleja is fighting to drag his team out of relegation danger, but the home side's 1.74 xGA average at home may be enough for Alavés to claim just their second win of the season.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 16.0015/1

Espanyol to make it three wins in a row

Elche v Espanyol
Saturday, 17:30
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Espanyol are comfortably ensconced in mid-table after an impressive victory over Cádiz last weekend, and they have a great chance to earn a third straight win as they face an Elche side averaging just 0.8 xGF in the league. Fran Escribá's hosts haven't scored more than once in any of their games in La Liga this term, and Infogol's model gives a narrow edge to the in-form visitors in what looks like being a low-scoring game.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 16.0015/1

Villarreal to suffer second straight league loss

Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal
Saturday, 20:00
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Athletic remain impressive at San Mamés, where they are averaging 1.93 xGF this season, though opponents Villarreal escaped with a point when the teams last met back in February. Unai Emery's visitors will have less of a rest, thanks to their midweek trip to Switzerland in the Champions League, and Infogol's model makes the home side favourites to claim a victory which would make it back-to-back defeats for the away side after a seven-game unbeaten league start.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1

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Sevilla to keep up impressive start

Sevilla v Levante
Sunday, 13:00
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Sevilla's 0.69 xGA average remains the league's best, though last weekend's win in Vigo was perhaps a bit closer for comfort than they would have liked. A home meeting with Levante should be easier to navigate, though, despite the visitors' new manager Javier Pereira earning his team a first clean sheet of the season last time out and the corresponding meeting last term staying goalless right up until Youssef En-Nesyri's stoppage-time winner.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 6.806/1

First Clásico of the season to go Madrid's way

Barcelona v Real Madrid
Sunday, 15:15
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There's less separating Barcelona and Real Madrid than there might be as we approach the season's first Clásico, but the visitors are still favourites based on Infogol's model. Carlo Ancelotti's side were dominant in their midweek Champions League demolition of Shakhtar Donetsk, but they'll have to contend with a Barça side averaging a league-best 2.54 xGF per game at home and buoyed by the knowledge they can leapfrog their rivals with a win.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Betis to stop Rayo resurgence

Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 17:30
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Real Betis are a little lower than where the numbers suggest they should be, but a victory over a Rayo side for whom the opposite is true may be enough to fix that. Manuel Pellegrini's side left it late to win last weekend, while their opponents made hard work of Elche, but Infogol backs a home win which will be enough for Los Verdiblancos to climb above their opponents and end the weekend in the top six.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2

Atléti to pull league leaders back into the pack

Atlético Madrid v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 20:00
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Atlético Madrid were unfortunate to lose to Liverpool in midweek, with the English side benefiting from Antoine Griezmann's red card, Diego Simeone's side will chase an instant response as they return to domestic action. Visitors Real Sociedad are top of the pile after going eight games unbeaten, but a repeat of last season's home win would see the champions draw level with their opponents on 20 points.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.007/1

Getafe to end wait for first win

Getafe v Celta Vigo
Monday, 20:00
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By the time they kick off on Monday night, Getafe will know if a win can lift them off the bottom or whether it will simply be necessary to stay in touch with their fellow strugglers. Quique Sánchez Flores earned a point from his first game, and has a chance to go one better against a visiting side who earned a point from this game last term but are averaging a worrying 1.76 xGA on the road this season.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1

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