La Liga Tips: Barça and Athletic to gain ground in Gameweek 11

Inigo Lekue Athletic
Athletic Bilbao have the best defensive record in all of La Liga

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the table threatens to split into two halves...

"Athletic were particularly impressive last time out, with a display against Villarreal which probably warranted a bigger victory, and they can build on that result against an Espanyol side who saw their winning run ended by a Darío Benedetto equaliser for Elche."

Alavés to continue recovery

Alavés v Elche
Tuesday, 18:00
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Alavés weren't entirely convincing for the duration of their win at Cádiz over the weekend, but they got the points they needed to move closer to safety and can climb out of the bottom three with a win over Elche. The visitors have struggled for points and performances on the road, where they average just 0.76 xGF per game, and Infogol backs the hosts to secure a similar result to the one they achieved on their last visit to Martínez Valero.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1

Espanyol to lose unbeaten run

Espanyol v Athletic Bilbao
Tuesday, 20:00
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Athletic were particularly impressive last time out, with a display against Villarreal which probably warranted a bigger victory, and they can build on that result against an Espanyol side who saw their winning run ended by a Darío Benedetto equaliser for Elche. While just three points separate these sides ahead of their meeting on Tuesday, the visitors' 1.00 xGA average has been accompanied by even fewer in the goals against column, and this can help them prevail.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 14.50

Cádiz to see winless run extend to six

Villarreal v Cádiz
Tuesday, 20:30
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Villarreal's topsy-turvy campaign continued in Bilbao last weekend, but they'll be confident of success against one of the handful of teams with fewer league wins than their two from nine games. Cádiz's 1.78 xGA per game is the league's worst, and they have reason to be concerned against opponents who gave a glimpse of what their attack can do in a recent Champions League win against Young Boys.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 7.006/1

Sevilla to continue early title challenge

Mallorca v Sevilla
Wednesday, 18:00
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Despite Levante putting as many past Sevilla as they'd conceded in their previous eight games combined, Julen Lopetegui's side found the finishing quality they needed for another win. They can expect a slightly easier ride against Mallorca, despite the hosts being slightly more solid at home than away, with an average of just 0.72 xGA away from Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán remaining the best of all sides in La Liga on the road.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 8.6015/2

Barça to rebound from Clásico defeat

Rayo Vallecano v Barcelona
Wednesday, 18:00
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Barcelona gave a reasonable account of themselves in the Clásico, but were undone by a David Alaba stunner and couldn't find the goal they needed until the game was gone. They could find themselves in trouble against a Rayo side outperforming expectations so far this term, but Infogol's model still backs the visitors to come through against opponents whose flying start has been slightly derailed by recent defeats on the road.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-3 @ 16.50

pique-barcelona-cadiz.jpg

Betis to continue home resurgence

Real Betis v Valencia
Wednesday, 19:00
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Betis have averaged 2.09 xGF per game across their last three at Benito Villamarín in all competitions, and this should worry a Valencia side whose last away win of any flavour came back on September 12. Last season's corresponding fixture ended all-square, with Carlos Soler scoring the visitors' second equaliser from the spot, but Infogol backs the home side to turn their 1.76 xGF home league average into a victory which could leave them in the top four by full-time.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1

Madrid to send Osasuna back towards mid-table

Real Madrid v Osasuna
Wednesday, 20:30
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After conceding a late equaliser to Granada's Ángel Montoro on Friday night, Osasuna could find themselves clinging on to a top-half spot if more results go against them in midweek. Real Madrid's 2.7 xGF home average will concern the visitors, and the entire league should be worried by the knowledge that Los Blancos sit just one point off top spot despite playing six of their nine games on the road.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 10.009/1

Real Sociedad to cling on to top spot

Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad
Thursday, 18:00
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La Real remain top despite faling to hold on in Madrid, and Thursday's away game ought to be more winnable. Celta are averaging 1.32 xGA per game at Balaídos, and the 4-1 defeat they suffered in the corresponding fixture last season saw former manager Óscar García all but run out of second chances, so it's easy to see why Infogol backs the visitors in this one.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 14.0013/1

Granada to claim points as strugglers face off

Granada v Getafe
Thursday, 19:00
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One of La Liga's worst home records goes up against the competition's worst away return on Thursday, and something has to give. Infogol's model has found little to choose between narrow favourites Granada and visitors Getafe ahead of their meeting at Nuevo Los Cármenes, as both sides could find themselves in the bottom three going into the game, and the goalless draw in the corresponding fixture in May won't fill the neutrals with confidence of witnessing a cracker.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 16.0015/1

Atléti to build on weekend comeback

Levante v Atlético Madrid
Thursday, 20:30
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Despite going 2-0 down to Real Sociedad, Atlético Madrid were able to call on their attacking reserves to create plenty of chances en route to an eventual draw. Next up for them is a Levante side who took a point from last season's corresponding fixture but have struggled for both results and defensive solidity this term as they remain in the bottom three after 10 winless games.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 7.4013/2

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