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Athletic star Sancet to haunt Osasuna again
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Simeone's Atletico will aim to put the brakes on Barcelona
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Real Madrid to close out 2024 on a high versus Sevilla
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Osasuna are one of the trickier teams to figure out in La Liga this season. The general perception is that they're having a very strong 2024-25, and that Vicente Moreno has landed on his feet in replacing Jagoba Arrasate. Both of those things are true. At the same time, however, there is a sense of unsustainability to their current rate of results.
Currently sitting in a very healthy eighth position in La Liga, there's no doubt there's been a sense of reliability behind their performances. Osasuna compete well, show plenty of intensity, and tend to defend their box well. But the numbers just don't quite add up when we see the strength of their results so far. They've come out on the right end of plenty of close games, and their efficiency in front of goal isn't likely to persist.
Indeed, using Opta's xG data, Osasuna are around six places higher than they should be based on the quality of chances created and conceded in La Liga this term. Only six sides have a worse xG difference than them (-5.4), while each of those sides will be hoping to do little more than stay in the division come next summer.
As for opponents Athletic, there's much less ambiguity when it comes to the realness of what we're seeing. Ernesto Valverde's side are a fantastic team and, were it not for being involved in European competition, would no doubt be pretty immovable in their place as Spain's fourth-best team at this point.
In their final game of the year and with a chance to catch a breather after the weekend, Athletic should go all guns blazing into this one. At their best, they're a formidable force in La Liga, and winning at El Sadar is certainly within their capabilities.
I'll take the visitors to win, along with Oihan Sancet to score anytime. His four goals against Osasuna are his most against any opponent in La Liga, and he's been in fantastic form of late too.
Back Athletic Bilbao to beat Osasuna; Oihan Sancet to score anytime
When the organisers put together their schedule for 2024-25, they couldn't have even dreamed of Barcelona and Atletico's year-closing fixture having a billing as good as this. Level on points in the table and both teams showing they're firmly in the race for the title, this one promises to be a blockbuster clash on Saturday night.
After starting the season in rampaging form, the early leaders Barcelona have been reeled back in by the likes of Atletico and Real Madrid. All of a sudden, Hansi Flick's side aren't so secure on the defensive end, and they've compounded that by losing their finishing touch more often - especially in their shock defeat to Leganes last time out.
At the same time, Atletico look to have found their feet in a dangerous way for the rest of La Liga. Diego Simeone has reverted to his classic 4-4-2, they're defending better than anyone in the division, and their bolstered squad from the summer is making a difference in a major way. When your two best players - Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez - are also two of your hardest workers, that makes for a very happy Simeone.
Scintillating form or not, this is a defining fixture for the Atletico boss. Quite simply, performing away to Barcelona has always been a challenge for him and his side. Simeone has never won this fixture in La Liga, and this will be his 13th such attempt (D4 L8).
With that in mind, you can expect the defensive gameplan to return. Atletico have been swatting rivals aside on their 11-game run, but in classic Simeone fashion, they will go there to frustrate more than they will to play. We've seen the script many times over the years.
Between their defensive strength and Barcelona's declining attacking performance, I don't imagine we'll get a high-scoring game when all is said and done. And along with under 2.5 goals, I'll pair that with 2+ fouls for the feisty Marc Casado.
The youngster has averaged 1.6 fouls per 90 for Barcelona this season, and he'll come up against a strong counter-attacking side here. Across 90-plus minutes, I expect the chances for him to get caught up in a few tangles will be elevated against a hard-running Atletico side.
Back under 2.5 goals between Barcelona and Atletico; 2+ fouls committed by Marc Casado
Fresh off their Intercontinental Cup win over Pachuca, and with their star players either returning or finding some positive form, things are starting to look pretty good for Real Madrid. Though it seemed unlikely not too long ago, it's a possibility they might even end 2024 top of La Liga, given that their two main rivals will play each other this weekend.
It's still not perfect by any means, but Real Madrid's stars now look happier and more of a unit. Vinicius Junior has returned from injury in superb form, Kylian Mbappe is growing in his threat, and Jude Bellingham is looking like the dominant player he was last season.
Between their improving state and the fact that they get to sign off 2024 in front of a fanbase whose mood is similarly picking up, I have a hard time seeing anything other than a Real Madrid win. However, I do think Sevilla will at least be able to find some good moments during the game.
Despite their attacking play very much flattering to deceive, Sevilla have still rarely been held scoreless under Garcia Pimienta. His side have scored at least once in 11 of their last 13 matches in La Liga, and have regularly been able to find a way despite their uninspiring displays.
Unlike last season in charge of Las Palmas, where his side played excellent combination football but lacked difference makers in attack, Garcia Pimienta's problems have reversed completely at Sevilla. They're struggling to play the associate style of football they want, yet through the likes of Dodi Lukebakio and (currently injured) Chidera Ejuke, they have players who make things happen in the final third.
Though they ultimately succumbed to a 4-3 defeat away at Atletico Madrid in their last away game, there was plenty of evidence within it that Sevilla can cause problems on the road against stronger sides. Particularly in the form of Lukebakio, he's someone who can be very lively on the break.
Overall, I'll go with Real Madrid to win, but not without getting stung on the defensive end at some point during.
Back Real Madrid to beat Sevilla and BTTS