Spanish LaLiga

La Liga Tips: Back Sevilla to prevail over Betis in huge derby clash

Sevilla's stadium shines under the sun
Garcia Pimienta's first Seville derby is a monumental one

Ahead of the last matchday before the international break, Jamie Kemp runs the rule over three fixtures on MD9 and suggests backing Sevilla to edge past Betis in the weekend's standout clash...


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Las Palmas v Celta Vigo - Sat, 17:30

It may only be Las Palmas' ninth game of the season, but it's already looking like a do-or-die game for manager Luis Carrion. With his side still without a win in La Liga this term, and their winless run now extending back to 22 games in the competition prior to his arrival, the alarm bells are sounding pretty heavily on the island.

Despite managing to score in all but one of their La Liga games under Carrion so far, they've been unable to protect themselves on the defensive side. They're one of only three sides yet to keep a clean sheet in the competition this term, while they have the worst defensive performance across the division when measured by xG conceded (17.3 in eight games).

Throw in the fact Alvaro Valles - one of the best goalkeepers in the division last season - is currently sitting out over a contract dispute from the summer, and you have a pretty dismal situation on that end.

If confidence is at rock bottom in Las Palmas, it could barely be higher for Saturday evening's opponents Celta Vigo. Their record through eight games (W3 D1 L4) might not look outstanding on paper, but the quality of their football and consistency of competition has been way beyond any pre-season expectations we could have had.

Above all, what we have here are two teams who are prone to conceding at the expense of creating dynamic attacks - and given Las Palmas' necessity to win, that should be even more pronounced in this game.

As for the attacking catalysts, I'll look to Alberto Moleiro on the home side and Iago Aspas for the visitors. Moleiro has found his shooting boots this term, scoring in three of his last five starts and averaging 1.5 shots on target per 90. Meanwhile, the rejuvenated Iago Aspas has been directly involved in six goals in eight La Liga games this season, and has a superb record against Las Palmas in the top-flight (seven goals and four assists in eight games).


Real Madrid v Villarreal - Sat, 20:00

Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti has faced Marcelino more times without losing than he has against any other opposition manager in La Liga (8 - W5 D3). Those are the facts, and they don't lend much optimism to a shock result at the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday evening.

However, it doesn't tell the whole truth about how clashes between Real Madrid and Villarreal have tended to go in recent years. Los Blancos only won one of their four La Liga meetings with them across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 campaigns (D1 L2), while you can go back as far as the 2017-18 season and see similar struggles along the way for them in this fixture.

Across the last 14 games between these two sides in La Liga, Real Madrid have only managed one more victory (4) than Villarreal have (3). Indeed, precisely half of the games in this period have ended in draws (7/14), including the most recent one when they faced back in May. Even with different managers and changing faces in the dugouts since 2017-18, something about the Yellow Submarine has given the Spanish giants continuous problems.

Of course, the elephant in the room here is Real Madrid on a 40-game unbeaten run in La Liga. No matter how good Villarreal might theoretically be, there aren't many teams in the world who can make them sweat at the moment.

Although I expect Ancelotti's side to continue their remarkable streak at the weekend, I'll opt for them to get the win here in a game where both teams get on the scoresheet. Coming into the weekend, Villarreal have scored as many goals as Real Madrid (17) in La Liga this season, with only Barcelona (25) netting more. They also rank third for xG behind the two Spanish giants (14.2), lending plenty of ability to their powers of creation.

The problem ahead of a trip to the Bernabeu is that Villarreal can't stop conceding. They've gone 10 games without a clean sheet in La Liga, and rank 16th in the division for xG conceded (11.6). Even if Kylian Mbappe remains on the sidelines for Real Madrid here, their attacking core shouldn't have too many problems finding the route to goal.


Sevilla v Real Betis - Sun, 17:30

Europe's hottest derby is back. Literally, it'll still be around 30 degrees when these two clash on Sunday evening, and the action on the pitch will be equally sizzling. Every time these two face each other, you expect nothing less.

For Sevilla especially, the derby brings a significant opportunity. With the home side still straining to find their football under new coach Garcia Pimienta, and with plenty of necessary credit still to be earned, a performance in this fixture would go an incredibly long way. The good news on that front is home advantage usually has a big say when these two clash.

Only two of the last 13 games between Sevilla and Real Betis in La Liga have been won by the away side, and in both cases they were away victories for Sevilla. Indeed, Betis are winless in this precise fixture in each of the last six campaigns, with their last win at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan dating back to January 2018 under Quique Setien (5-3).

We've seen better Betis sides travel to face their rivals than this current one and not manage to bring back a victory, so I've already got plenty of doubts about their ability to do so this time. Are they better than Sevilla today? I'd give them the edge. Are they good enough to beat Sevilla at the Sanchez-Pizjuan? I have much less faith.

In the end, I'm going to opt for the home crowd to drive Sevilla on to a victory here, along with under 3.5 goals in the game. The last five times these two have faced each other at Sevilla in La Liga have seen only eight goals scored, while Sunday's hosts haven't seen more than three goals scored in any of their last nine home league games.


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