Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the league leaders face a big test...
A trip to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán represents one of Atléti's toughest challenges in the run-in, with the last five home and away league meetings with Sevilla producing four draws.
Levante to deny Huesca valuable points
Huesca remain just about in touching distance of safety, sitting four points adrift of 17th, but an away return of one win in 14 could prove their undoing. They're up against a Levante side which escaped El Alcoraz with a point just before Christmas, and Infogol's model foresees a home win with both sides finding the net on Friday night.
Villarreal to earn fifth straight win in all competitions
A return to European action has given Villarreal new energy, with two league wins to accompany victories in both legs of their Europa League meeting with Dynamo Kyiv, and Unai Emery's side now face a Granada outfit who are also still in contention to make May's final in Gdańsk. Granada's home displays haven't been quite as impressive as their enviable points record suggests, and Infogol backs the visitors to prevail in a close contest.
Champions to keep title challenge alive
Real Madrid can't afford any more slip-ups if they're to narrow the six-point gap to league leaders Atlético across the last 10 games of the season, and a home return of just 1.05 xGA per game should help them get the better of Eibar. A repeat of December's fast start at Ipurua - where the champions were two to the good inside 15 minutes - would surely be enough to clinch another three points.
Osasuna to leave Getafe with work to do
Osasuna could find themselves 10 points clear of the drop with a win at El Sadar on Saturday, and that would surely be enough for another year of La Liga football after a hairy few months. Visitors Getafe are also not safe, and an away return of 0.95 xGF per game doesn't bode well ahead of a game which Infogol sees going the way of the hosts.
Celta to keep Alavés in the mire
Celta Vigo have the chance to complete a league double over Alavés, having secured a 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture, and the hosts will hope the international break has refreshed them after a worrying league run. Infogol backs the visitors to triumph in a low-scoring game, a result which would keep Abelardo's men in the bottom three with time running out to run things around.
Betis to keep up European charge
Despite winning their last home league game, Elche's average of 0.87 xGF at Manuel Martínez Valero represents the league's worst return on home soil. Visitors Betis need just a point to go fifth, with Real Sociedad in Copa Del Rey action, but Infogol expects Manuel Pellegrini's side to claim all three and keep their opponents just above the drop zone.
Valencia to pick up rare away win
Just two of Valencia's eight wins this season have come away from the Mestalla, but a trip to a Cádiz side with one of the league's worst home records could change that. Infogol makes the visitors narrow favourites to go one better after being held to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in January, and anticipates a third away win to nil of the season.
Sevilla to dent Atlético's title charge
A trip to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán represents one of Atléti's toughest challenges in the run-in, with the last five home and away league meetings with Sevilla producing four draws. Infogol's model favours the hosts, who have been averaging 1.04 xGA at home, and by the end of the weekend Diego Simeone's men could have their lead at the top cut to a single point.
Barça to keep ticking upward
Barcelona should have the goods to comfortably beat Valladolid, if Infogol's model is to be trusted, with a home average of 2.55 xGF per game representing by far the best return in La Liga. Sergio González's strugglers succumbed to a 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, and the prospect of an in-form title contender at Camp Nou makes a repeat scoreline - if not a worse defeat - a very realistic possibility.