Jones Knows Notebook: Why AFCON could hit overperforming Sunderland hard and 16/1 for relegation appeals

• Sunderland losing six players to AFCON, including key duo Sadiki & Reinaldo

• Back them for relegation at industry-best price of 16/117.00

• Read more about the World Cup 2026 here

• It's day three of the World Darts - read our tips here!

Storm brewing over the Stadium of Light

I know what you're thinking: 'Sunderland? Relegation? Really?'

However, this 16/117.00 to go down looks too big based on the market not quite joining the dots yet on a likely slump in form that could be around the corner.

Just 10 points separates them from the bottom three and in such a condensed and squashed Premier League, that third relegation spot this season could see a team amass a big points haul but still come a cropper. 

There's a storm forming over the Stadium of Light and it's due to hit the club right across the months when the Premier League table starts to take genuine shape.

Sunderland are set to lose six players to the African Cup of Nations over the next month or so.

The newly promoted side have had the highest percentage of minutes played by African players since their promotion, at almost 30%. Chemsdine Talbi, Habib Diarra, Reinildo, Bertrand Traore, Arthur Masuaku and Noah Sadiki have all played their part in Sunderland's majestic start to the campaign. All will be missing for nearly at least a month starting on December 15.

Losing one or two players to AFCON is manageable. But six? From a squad that's lacking in depth anyway, it's anticipated that they will start to feel the pinch during this relentless part of the season.

For Sunderland, they're heading into that stretch without their midfield glue in Sadiki, their defensive insurance and street smarts of Reinaldo, and a chunk of their attacking unpredictability with Talbi and Traore.

Suddenly everything Sunderland have built this season looks fragile.

The warning light in terms of their upcoming form is firmly flashing on the dashboard.

The scheduling gods haven't done them any favours either. Their AFCON period runs parallel with a run of games where they face Man City, Brighton, Tottenham and Crystal Palace across the duration of the tournament in Morocco. 

Sunderland regression is inevitable

Sunderland are ninth in the Premier League table and have received huge plaudits for their recruitment and performances. Rightly so.  

But the underlying numbers? They're waving a big red flag. According to Opta's expected points model, Sunderland should be 19^th - behind Wolves.

Yes, really.

If you repeatedly win tight matches whilst flirting with losing the underlying battle and then lose matches by a big number on the metrics, it usually means an overperformance is occurring. It is here.

Strip away the emotion, the vibes, the narrative fluff, the Granit Xhaka love-in and the Black Cats' performances put them second-bottom in the metrics that usually matter most. And when a team's results and numbers stretch this far apart, that elastic tends to snap at some point.

The metrics are telling us this team are one of the weakest in the division, very much a team that should be fighting for relegation. Football can be a cruel mistress at times, fine margins are at play and with so many of their key men departing, they could find themselves tumbling down the table faster than the prices can adjust. 

Act now at the best price in the industry. 

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