Tottenham v Liverpool: Opta say Back 40/1 Bet Builder on Sunday

• Salah stats say he must be backed for goal involvement

• Goals look guaranteed for both sides

• Liverpool set to continue dominance over Spurs

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The big games keep coming in the Premier League and this weekend leaders Liverpool travel to Tottenham as they look to secure top spot for Christmas.

Goals have been flying in all over the shop in this part of north London so far this season, so hopefully another entertaining game is on the cards. With both sides in need of the points, let's have a look at the data to see what might happen.

Find a way to get with brilliant Salah

It makes sense to start this by highlighting the obvious, which is that Mohamed Salah is a match winner for Liverpool and it makes sense to find an angle by which we can get behind him.

The Egyptian has been directly involved in 22 of Liverpool's 31 goals this season (71%), which is by some distance the highest share of any player in the division.

The assist that Salah registered in the 2-2 draw against Fulham was his ninth in the league this season and 100th for the club. Since his debut for Liverpool in 2017, only Kevin De Bruyne (132), Thomas Muller (118) and Lionel Messi (108) have registered more assists in Europe's top five leagues.

One more assist will mean Salah becomes the first player in Premier League history to reach double figures for both goals and assists before Christmas. While he got an assist last time out, he didn't score, ending a sublime run of seven straight league games in which he had found the net.

Salah's longest goal drought in the league this season has been just two matches, so that would suggest he isn't likely to hang around this time either. He is currently tied at the top of the Premier League Golden Boot standings with Erling Haaland, having scored 13 goals.

His price to register a goal or assist is a little on the short side at 8/151.53, but there could be sense in backing him separately in each market. Salah is available at 10/111.91 to score anytime, while a Salah assist is 17/102.70.

Outside of Salah, there is no Liverpool player who has had more than 10 shots on target in the league this season so, from a value perspective, there is a lot of sense in looking a little further down the list.

Arne Slot's side have scored 15 goals from set pieces so far this season, which is the equal fourth-most in the Premier League. Captain Virgil van Dijk is one of the more imposing presences from set-piece situations in the league

The Dutchman has scored two goals already this season against AC Milan in September and Arsenal in October, while he hit the post against Manchester City at the start of December. He comes into this having had four shots in his last three matches in the league and is 13/27.50 to get a goal.

Plenty of attacking threats for the hosts

From a Tottenham perspective, there are a few angles that could potentially be of interest. Let's start with Brennan Johnson, who has had more open-play shots than any of his team-mates (35). He is available at 11/43.75 to find the net on Sunday.

Elsewhere, Dejan Kulusevski is worthy of a mention in the score or assist market at 15/82.88. The Swede has scored in back-to-back league games, while he has six goal involvements in his last 11 Premier League appearances. He has also created more open-play chances (30) than any of his team-mates and comes into the game on the back of an EFL Cup goal against Manchester United on Thursday.

Finally, a Pedro Porro assist at 9/25.50 is not to be sniffed at. The Spanish defender has already registered two in the league this season, while he is Tottenham's fourth-most active player within their attacking sequences. What that means is that when his team come forward, you can expect him to be there or thereabouts.

Plenty of goals on the cards

It looks like we should be in for some goals at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Spurs have seen an average of 3.44 goals in the league up to this point, while that seven-goal cup thriller is also fresh in the memory.

Tottenham have scored the second-most goals in the division (36) behind Chelsea (37) and have netted three times or more in seven of their last 12 league games. That total includes three against Chelsea and Manchester United, and four against Manchester City and Aston Villa.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have exhibited some defensive vulnerability in recent weeks, having kept just two clean sheets in their last eight league games. While that statistic comes with the caveat that Caoimhin Kelleher and not Alisson was between the sticks for all but one of those matches, the number of goals conceded is about more than just who is in goal. The Reds have let in 10 across their last seven games, having conceded just three in their first eight.

As a result, it's no surprise that BTTS is as short as 3/101.30. Instead, it could be worth getting behind both teams to score twice at 7/42.75. That would have landed in three of Liverpool's last four matches, including in back-to-back away games, and both of Spurs' last two home games (3-4 defeat to Chelsea and 4-3 victory over Manchester United).

Hard to look beyond leaders Liverpool

Given how impressive Liverpool have been so far this season, you could probably classify back-to-back draws in the league as a wobble. But there are wobbles and there are wobbles.

Despite beating bottom-of-the-league Southampton 5-0 in their last league game, Tottenham come into this match with just two league victories in their last six. They have also taken just one point from their last three home games and haven't had a longer top-flight winless run on their own patch since 2013. While the win over Manchester United will have lifted spirits, it also highlighted many of the issues that have plagued them this season.

Inconsistent results have seen Spurs slip to 10th in the Premier League table, five points behind fourth-placed Nottingham Forest and 13 behind Liverpool. They are rated by the Opta supercomputer as having just a 5.7% chance of finishing in the top four, while Liverpool have an 82.2% chance of winning the title using the same model. The visitors are also backed by the supercomputer to prevail in this match.

Spurs have also lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table, with both exceptions coming away to Manchester City (August 2019 and February 2022). Liverpool, meanwhile, have lost just two of their last 23 Premier League games against Tottenham, winning 15 and drawing six.

With that in mind, it is hard to think of this fixture as anything other than a mismatch, with Liverpool's price of 8/111.73 as the away team suggesting as much.

But with Liverpool having failed to steamroller teams on the road - each of their last seven away victories in all competitions have been by a margin of one goal - the best way to get with them is likely to be incorporating their win price into a bet builder.

Our selections are: Liverpool to win, both teams to score twice, Mohamed Salah to get an assist and Virgil van Dijk to score anytime.

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