Sunderland v Newcastle: Back Toon on derby day and Hall shots at 3/1

• Return of Hall and Livramento make Toon a different beast

• Howe's men are reliable at turning up in big games

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Sunderland v Newcastle
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

A first Tyne-Wear derby league meeting in almost 10 years is going to be an occasions to savour.

And, Newcastle at 2.3411/8 on the Betfair Exchange to beat Sunderland has got my attention.

On paper, I get why the layers have dangled something that juicy. One win in seven Premier League away games doesn't exactly scream "trust me with your money."

Newcastle on the road have looked like a side missing their spark, their rhythm and occasionally their legs. But something has changed in recent weeks that makes them a far trustworthy team even away from home.

The full-back factor, we'll call it.

Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall make such a difference to this Newcastle team.

The knock-on effect of having such quality and intelligent players back is enormous.

Newcastle build with control rather than chaos. They squeeze opponents with far more confidence. And importantly, they no longer look one counter-attack away from disaster with Dan Burn an obvious weakness when playing down the left.

In their most recent two away days at Everton and Bayer Leverkusen, with Livramento and Hall in the team, Newcastle swatted aside the Toffees 4-1 in arguably their best performance of the season and then won the expected goals battle in Leverkusen by 0.95 despite drawing 2-2.

Newcastle understand the stakes at play here, too. They know what it means.

And - crucially when you're staking actual money - they are a trustworthy team that tend to turn up in the big, emotional, statement-making fixtures. Howe's side relish a scrap when the lights burn hottest.

It's been the backbone of the success story of Howe at Newcastle.

Sunderland regression is inevitable

Flip the coin to Sunderland and, as those who have read my Notebook column this week will know, this is a team overachieving based on the underlying numbers. They could yet be dragged into a relegation scrap at 16/117.00 based on many factors.

Sunderland are ninth in the Premier League and have received huge plaudits for their recruitment and performances. Rightly so. But the underlying numbers? They're waving a big red flag. According to Opta's expected points model, Sunderland should be 19^th.

The metrics tell us this team are one of the weakest in the division and should be fighting to avoid relegation. Sunderland have won one of their last six Premier League games and have won just one of their eight games against top-half teams. They have battled well against the elite but without much reward which makes their 3.5551/20 home win on the Exchange quotes very easy to sidestep.

No Hall pass, just shoot 

Sunderland are happy to offer up territory to the opposition.

It's a tactic that has worked well for talented boss Regis Le Bris. They defend deep in numbers and are happy to face low probability chances. Their xG per shot faced of 0.092 is the second lowest only behind Arsenal in that metric.

In total they have faced 229 shots this season - that's an average of 15.2 per 90. Only Burnley and West Ham have faced more.

Heading to the player shots market for Newcastle makes sense then, especially with Betfair's safe sub offer adding some security to our bets. As mentioned, Toon full-back Hall is a player full of intent and quality - two traits you need for a player in the shots market.

His game is all about forward purpose. Give him grass and he'll take it. Give him a defender backing off and he'll shift, drive and pull the trigger - as he has done in his last four appearances, recording a shot in each.

It's noticeable how regularly he joins attacks as an extra midfielder too. A derby provides the emotional licence for that kind of ambition where shooting on sight is hopefully on the agenda. His two or more shots line of 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook looks overpriced.

Now read Mark Stinchcombe's tipsheet here.