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Porro to struggle in Yorkshire
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Sesko backed to come good
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Doherty a cautionary tale
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Leeds v Tottenham - Porro to face double trouble
Saturday 12:30
Live on TNT Sports
Pape Matar Sarr has taken on a first half shot in each of his last three starts for Spurs, so he tempts at 4/51.80 to extend on that at Elland Road.
Backing the Leeds keeper to make four or more saves meanwhile intrigues at 13/82.63. On the one hand, Karl Darlow has made 3.7 stops per 90 this term while Tottenham have taken on the sixth most shots. On the other hand, the hosts tend to be defensively sound at home, conceding only 8.5 efforts per 90 to date.
If you fancy Thomas Frank's men to have the best of it then, by all means, back Darlow to take centre-stage, but the best bet for the lunchtime kick-off concerns Pedro Porro and the tough afternoon that awaits him.
Fouling at least once in nine of his last 10 starts, the full-back faces down both Anton Stach and Noah Okafor this weekend. The former has been in terrific form for the most part while Okafor completed three dribbles last time out.
Back Pedro Porro to commit 2 or more fouls
Arsenal v West Ham - Born of frustration
Saturday 15:00
In the last two seasons the Hammers have consecutively departed the Emirates with the points having successfully pulled off old-fashioned smash-and-grabs. In those two games combined the Gunners averaged 71% possession and took on a shot every 3.6 minutes.
Both victories were secured to nil.
With Nuno Espirito Santo now in charge of the visitors a similar mandate surely awaits, as he seeks to shore up a porous back-line and this has us looking beyond the Arsenal front-line for value in the shots market. Because when frustration kicks in, we can expect a good few attempts from range.
This puts Riccardo Calafiori firmly in the frame, the full-back averaging two shots per 90 across his last six appearances.
Back Calafiori to have 2 or more shots
Man United v Sunderland - Sesko worth a shot
Saturday 15:00
For all their considerable troubles, Manchester United have taken on a league-high number of shots this term (69) and have the highest xG (12.21) to boot.
In his weekly Notebook Lewis Jones rightly points out that these stats should be given short shrift, with game-state taking precedence, but that doesn't impact on the following tip, which is to back Benjamin Sesko to build on his first decent showing for the Reds, away at Brentford last week.
The Slovenian striker has been largely ineffective since joining this summer but six shots undertaken, one scored, and three aerial duels won at the Gtech will give him confidence going forward. And confidence can do funny things.
Back Sesko to have 4 or more shots
Chelsea v Liverpool - Fernandez a stand-out
Saturday 17:30
Live on Sky Sports
They may reside at the summit but a million words have been written about Liverpool's soft underbelly, not to mention how disjointed they look following an expensive summer overhaul. Florian Wirtz has toiled but flopped to this point. Ibrahima Konate has blown hot and very cold.
As for Chelsea, they have problems up front, with Joao Pedro putting in some woeful showings recently, after a highly promising start. They will greatly miss Cole Palmer for this one too, their creator-in-chief.
All told then, a score-draw at 10/34.33 stands out, with perhaps less quality on display than we've seen in previous clashes.
The exception to this prognosis is Enzo Fernandez who has so often come to the Blues' rescue, helping out Caicedo in shielding an unreliable back-line while also Lamparding his way into the box whenever possible.
The Argentine has 16 goal involvements in 27 with only Salah racking up better numbers in that period.
Back Fernandez anytime goalscorer
Aston Villa v Burnley - Ollie off the mark
Sunday 14:00
Live on Sky Sports
At the sixth time of asking, Ollie Watkins finally broke his 2025/26 duck last weekend and it surprised that it wasn't the game's opener. At the tail-end of last season the England international routinely broke the deadline in contests, with five of his previous eight goals scored in 2025 converted when 0-0.
Add in too that the Clarets have conceded in the 10th, 27th and 12th minute across their three away fixtures this term and an early Watkins strike is well worth a punt.
Back Ollie Watkins first goalscorer
Wolves v Brighton - Doherty card shout
Sunday 14:00
Live on Sky Sports
We can expect an abundance of trips, shirt pulls and illegal blocks at Molineux this Sunday, with both teams committing the joint-second highest number of fouls per match in 2025/26.
Each have tested the ref's patience 13.8 times per 90.
The worst offender for the Seagulls has been Carlos Baleba, committing 2.9 fouls per 90, but Wolves' Matt Doherty trumps that, his 3.2 per 90 resulting in three yellow cards already.
With the full-back set for an afternoon's tussle with Kaoru Mitoma this weekend he is a decent shout to again find himself in the book.
Back Matt Doherty to be booked
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