Mark O'Haire's Notebook: MD8 Premier League tips involving Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Spurs

• Chalobah could strike for Chelsea at the City Ground

• Smart coaches could cancel each out at Selhurst Park

• Overperforming Spurs worth opposing on Sunday

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

Nottm Forest v Chelsea: Hosts under fire from set-pieces

Nottm Forest v Chelsea
Saturday 18 October, 12:30
Live on TNT

Nottingham Forest fans must be feeling pretty exasperated by their current plight. Since posting their best league finish since 1995, the Tricky Trees have taken several steps back, dragging themselves into a potential scrap for survival with the sacking of Nuno Espirito Santo and subsequent appointment of Ange Postecoglou puzzling plenty.

Winless since the gruff Australian took charge, Forest are struggling to control contests (with or without the ball), create chances and threaten on the counter-attack. The Reds have also appeared decidedly shaky at the back, especially defending set-pieces, an area Postecoglou struggled with at Spurs.

Forest have faced 18 shots from centre-backs in seven games under Postecoglou (2-2-4-1-1-5-3), an average of 2.57 per-game. Only West Ham have faced more shots from dead-ball situations, with the Reds allowing the third-highest Expected Goals (xG) figure from set-pieces. That fragility could be exposed against Chelsea on Saturday. 

Trevor Chalobah is back from suspension and should start in the heart of the Blues' rearguard. The 6ft 4in defender has already scored twice in six Premier League encounters this term, while managing four headed efforts across his nine appearances across the 2025/25 campaign, making him well worthy of an interest to score at 17/29.50.

Crystal Palace v Bournemouth: Stalemate at Selhurst

Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
Saturday 18 October, 15:00

Crystal Palace's clash with Bournemouth on Saturday pits against each other two of the best and smartest pound-for-pound coaches in the Premier League. Both Oliver Glasner and Andoni Iraola have enjoyed great success implementing their style, structure and system on bottom-half budgets, proving incredibly effective in their approach.

Capable of spotting opposition weaknesses and proactive in their in-game management, Glasner and Iraola have taken their unheralded clubs to great heights. However, meetings between the pair have tended to be pretty low on the entertainment stakes as the two shrewdies have often cancelled each other out.

Last season's meetings both ended goalless with xG tallies of 1.09 xG and 1.92 xG - the Big Chance count read zero and one, whilst the previous match-up between Palace and Bournemouth under the same management teams ended 1-0 with an xG total of 1.29 xG. It wouldn't be a major surprise to see something similar play-out at Selhurst Park on Saturday.

With that in-mind, the Draw 3.505/2 stands-out - it's already landed in three of Palace's opening league outings, as well as four of their previous nine in front of their own supporters. Bournemouth have also shared the spoils in four of their past nine away days and a repeat therefore appeals as the outsider of the three Match Odds options.

Tottenham v Aston Villa: Spurs too short to support

Tottenham v Aston Villa
Sunday 19 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa appear to be finding their feet after a turbulent summer and a difficult August. Unai Emery's outfit are now unbeaten in seven, winning four on the spin before the international break, with the Villans finding a formula to get much-needed points on the board. And I want to get Villa on side for Super Sunday's showdown at Spurs.

Tottenham may be sitting only two points off the EPL summit, and results-wise, Thomas Frank's made a very encouraging start to life with the Whites. Yet Spurs have consistently underwhelmed - pinching the points at Leeds despite generating just 0.53 xG and losing the shots in the box count 11-5 in their last date, as a recent example.

Over Spurs' last seven fixtures (Leeds, Bodo/Glimt, Wolves, West Ham, Bournemouth, Villarreal and Brighton), the hosts have generated a bang-average output of just 0.62 xG from open play per-game. Meanwhile, in league football this season, Tottenham have scored 13 goals from an xG output of 7.5 - the division's biggest overperformance.  

That's unsustainable and following far from formidable home efforts against Burnley, Wolves, Bournemouth and Villarreal, there's little reason to back Spurs here at the current prices. The home team have tabled just three triumphs in their previous 17 EPL matches in front of their own supporters. Aston Villa +0.5 at 1.9420/21 stands-out.

Football...Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode

Now read the best player props bets for Saturday in the Premier League