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Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets to back from 15/8 to a 14/1 Bet Builder

Alexander Boyes
03 February 2023
3:00 min read

Kane is one goal away from scoring his 200th Premier League goal

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The Premier League returns and Alex Boyes has dug into the Opta Stats to pick out a bet from each game. With odds including a 14/1 Bet Builder, read on to find the top stat-related bets this weekend...

MD9s 80% success & 15 pts of profit the aim once again
Ødegaard's form boosts Arseanl to 7/2 to Everton
Liverpool at 15/2 would have landed the last three years
Wilson's favourite opponent gives us a 4/1 Bet Builder
Bag a £2 free Bet Builder on any PL game this weekend

Chelsea v Fulham

Friday night's slow burner

The Opta Stat:

"No side has won more Premier League games than Fulham since the restart of the competition following the World Cup (4), with only Newcastle (0) and Brentford (3) conceding fewer goals than the Cottagers (4). Chelsea, meanwhile, are the only side yet to concede a first half goal at home in the Premier League this season. They've not conceded in any of their last 10 first halves at Stamford Bridge."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Under 0.5 first-half goals @ 15/8

Read Paul Higham's match preview here which includes a 13/2 shot!

Everton v Arsenal

Gunners blow Dyche apart

The Opta Stat:

"Martin Ødegaard has scored more Premier League away goals than any other Arsenal player this season (6). He's netted in each of his last three on the road. Indeed, Arsenal's last three Premier League away games have seen them win 2-0 (vs Wolves), 4-2 (vs Brighton) and 2-0 (vs Tottenham). The Gunners haven't won four consecutive away league games by at least two goals since October 1953."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Odegaard to score anytime & Arsenal (-1) @ 7/2

Aston Villa v Leicester City

Goals to flow at Villa

The Opta Stat:

"Leicester City's away Premier League games this season have averaged a joint-league-high four goals per game, with the Foxes scoring 17 and conceding 23 in 10 games on the road this term. Douglas Luiz, meanwhiel. has the joint-most assists (4) and most chances created (23) of any Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season and has been involved in four goals in his last six league games (1 goal, 3 assists), as many as he had in his previous 37 appearances."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Luiz to assist anytime & Over 3.5 goals @ just over 14/1

Brentford v Southampton

Tough to seperate Bees & Saints

The Opta Stat:

"Brentford are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (W4 D4) - only once as a top-flight club have they had a longer run without defeat, going 14 games between March and September 1936. ● Southampton have won a higher share of their Premier League points in away games than any other side this season (60% - 9/15). Indeed, three of Saints' four victories this season have come on the road, while they're looking to pick up back-to-back away league wins for the first time since June 2020."

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS & draw @ just over 3/1

Brighton & Hove Albion v Bournemouth

Mitoma x Ferguson

The Opta Stat:

"30% of Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma's attempted take-ons in the Premier League this season have been in the opposition's box (12/40), the highest share of any player with at least 30 attempted. Indeed, teammate Evan Ferguson has three goals and two assists in just 198 minutes of Premier League football this season, with his average of a goal involvement every 40 minutes the best in the division this term (min. 90 minutes)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both Mitoma & Ferguson to score or assist @ 9/5

Manchester United v Crystal Palace

Ten Hag's side are still to learn

The Opta Stat:

"Crystal Palace have taken seven points from their last four away league games against Manchester United (W2 D1 L1), just one fewer than they had from their first 21 visits to Old Trafford (W2 D2 L17, assuming 3 pts/win). However, they did lose this exact fixture 1-0 last season. Indeed, following Michael Olise's free-kick for Crystal Palace to make it 1-1, and Eddie Nketiah's strike for Arsenal to make it 3-2, Manchester United have conceded result-altering goals in the 90^th minute of consecutive Premier League matches for the first time."

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS in the second half @ 11/4

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool

1-0, to the.. Liverpool?

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool have won each of their last 11 Premier League games against Wolves - in their league history, they've only won more consecutively against West Bromwich Albion (12 between 1985 and 2010). Indeed, Liverpool's last three away games against Wolves in all competitions have ended in 1-0 victories, including an FA Cup match last month."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 15/2

Newcastle United v West Ham United

Wilson's favourites just in time

The Opta Stat:

"Newcastle's Callum Wilson has scored nine goals in 11 Premier League appearances against West Ham, more than he has versus any other side. His first ever goals in the competition were a hat-trick against the Hammers, in a 4-3 win for Bournemouth at Upton Park in August 2015. Newcastle, meanwhile, have kept a league-high 12 Premier League clean sheets this season, their most in a single top-flight campaign since 2011-12 (15)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Wilson to score, Newcastle to win & BTTS - No @ 4/1

Nottingham Forest v Leeds United

The Brian Clough derby

The Opta Stat:

"Since their return to the Premier League in 2020, Leeds have won all five of their away games against promoted sides by an aggregate score of 14-3. These victories account for 31% of all their away league wins over the last three seasons (5/16)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Leeds to win & over 3,5 goals @ 13/2

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City

Kane's milestone moment

The Opta Stat:

"Tottenham's Harry Kane has scored 199 Premier League goals in 303 games, and would be the third player to reach 200 after Alan Shearer (260) and Wayne Rooney (208). A goal in this game would see him reach the milestone in fewer games than the other two (Shearer 306, Rooney 462). On the other hand and going back to the reversve fixture only last month, Man City's Riyad Mahrez has been involved in more Premier League goals against Tottenham than he has any other opponent (11 - 7 goals, 4 assists), with the Algerian having a hand in three of the Citizens' goals in their 4-2 win in January."

The Betfair Bet: