Chelsea v Fulham: Back a slow burner at the Bridge

Paul Higham
03 February 2023
1.30 min read

Graham Potter is looking for his first win over Fulham

Chelsea vs Fulham
Fri 3 Feb, 20:00

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Paul Higham is expecting a tough battle at Stamford Bridge where both Chelsea and Fulham's stats point to it being all square after the first half...

Record signing Enzo Fernandez could make his Chelsea debut
Mitrovic returns after missing Fulham win in reverse fixture
Fulham have scored more goals from crosses than anyone else
Six of Chelsea's nine home games have been level at HT

Big-spending Blues looking for a boost

Chelsea's first defeat against local rivals Fulham in 17 years came just a few weeks ago, but the short reversal in fixtures means that the Blues have a quick chance to exact revenge back at Stamford Bridge.

The turnaround's so quick in fact that Joao Felix is still suspended after he was sent off in his debut during the 2-1 defeat at Craven Cottage, but still long enough for Graham Potter to see his squad swell massively with the addition of £300m worth of new signings in January.

Mykhailo Mudryk may start after a promising debut at Anfield last time out, with Potter then having almost two weeks to work with players old and new to boost their flagging form of just one win in six.

Chelsea

Fulham

Chelsea 2 2 Everton
Leicester City 1 3 Chelsea
Chelsea 2 0 Borussia Dortmund
Chelsea 1 0 Leeds United
Tottenham Hotspur 2 0 Chelsea
Chelsea 0 1 Southampton

Manchester United 3 1 Fulham
Fulham 0 3 Arsenal
Brentford 3 2 Fulham
Fulham 2 0 Leeds United
Fulham 1 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Brighton and Hove Albion 0 1 Fulham

Chelsea vs Fulham Friday 03 February, 20:00

Full stats

Record signing Enzo Fernandez has only just arrived but could make the bench for a fixture Chelsea have not lost since 1979, as they look to move above their neighbours in the table and finally start heading in the right direction.

Fulham aim to avoid hat-trick of defeats

No team has won more Premier League games since the World Cup than Fulham, but they've hit a wall recently with back-to-back 1-0 defeats so Marco Silva will hope to avoid making it three in a row.

Silva won't want a brilliant first half of the season to fall away and having a first ever league double over their neighbours tantalisingly close then they've got everything to play for.

Chelsea may have had 10-men in the 2-1 defeat at Fulham, but the Cottagers also played without 11-goal top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic who will play at Stamford Bridge so the visitors should still be dangerous.

Fulham do have the worst London derby win rate in the Premier League though, with Chelsea having the highest so the Cottagers will have to do what they've been doing most of the season - upset the odds - to get anything here.

Chelsea favourites to end Potter's drought

Potter hasn't managed to beat Fulham in four games managing against them, but his side are 8/13 to claim derby victory at home, with Fulham 9/2 for what would be a famous away win.

The draw comes in at 3/1 and is well worth considering, as Fulham have been unlucky to lose their last two games by the odd goal and Chelsea have hardly been prolific of late.

It mean's under 2.5 goals should be in play at 20/23 even though Fulham lead the lead in games going over - Chelsea are almost exactly the opposite at home with their last five league games at Stamford Bridge all going under.

Back the HT draw in Chelsea v Fulham

5/4

A big favourite in derby games is the half-time draw, which is 5/4 here, and it certainly has merit here given the stats of both sides in home and away games.

Fulham have been level at the break in six of 10 away games with Chelsea even more prolific with six half-time draws in just nine home games.

A goalless first half at 15/8 also must make some appeal as only Southampton have scored fewer than Chelsea's four first-half goals at home this season, but the Blues have at least been tight at the back and have not yet conceded a first-half goal at home in the league this season.

No Mitrović, no problem

Carlos Vinícius heads Fulham back ahead in the West London Derby... pic.twitter.com/SuEVu184J6
-- Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) January 12, 2023

Can Mitrovic be a menace?

Kai Havertz scored twice on Fulham's last visit to the Bridge, and also netted the winner against palace last time out, so is naturally well-fancied at 15/8 to score anytime.

Mudryk is just 9/4 to score on his home debut while Willian is a 9/2 shot to score at his former home having scored in the reverse fixture, albeit with a big deflection.

Mitrovic will be the big danger though as a 2/1 anytime scorer, especially as Fulham target him more than any other player in the league gets targeted from crosses.

Back Mitrovic to score a header at a boosted

8/1

As a result, Fulham lead the league in goals scored from crosses with 11 and Chelsea are vulnerable here, conceding the second-highest percentage of goals from crosses in the league, with six of the 21 they've let in coming via that method.

Just as a stand-out bet, or even for inclusion in big-priced bet Builders, Mitrovic to score a header at 13/2 looks a nice player props bet to take on in this game.