Premier League Tips: More problems for Man Utd in Gameweek 9

Paul Pogba  playing for Man Utd
Paul Pogba was one of the United players left frustrated by last weekend's defeat

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as two of last season's top four face off at Old Trafford...

"Three winless games in the league have seen Manchester United drop out of the top four, and their next challenge against unbeaten Liverpool isn't the most inviting."

Gunners to continue unbeaten stretch

Arsenal v Aston Villa
Friday, 20:00

While Arsenal needed a last-gasp equaliser to rescue a point against Crystal Palace, it was a solid attacking display which was derailed by defensive frailties. Mikel Arteta will hope his team can build on the positives against a Villa side who were undone by a late goal themselves last weekend. With both teams yet to find consistency at the back, each conceding 12 from eight games, Infogol anticipates goals in Friday night's contest.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Chelsea to retain top spot

Chelsea v Norwich City
Saturday, 12:30

Chelsea can count themselves fortunate to sit top of the league, having survived a real onslaught at Brentford last time out, but the Blues' meeting with another promoted side looks like being more straightforward. Norwich are still yet to win a game in the league this term, though they were good value for their draw with Brighton last weekend, and the Canaries are expected to stay bottom after coming up against the league's best defence in real - if not expected - terms.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 6.806/1

Newcastle to continue wait for win

Crystal Palace v Newcastle United
Saturday, 15:00

The optimism of the takeover wasn't enough to bring Newcastle three points against Tottenham, with Steve Bruce leaving the club after Sunday's loss, and the Magpies remain in the bottom three ahead of a trip to Selhurst Park. Palace are unbeaten at home, though a failure to convert draws into wins has been a problem for Patrick Vieira's side, and this game could sit on the margins of whether the Eagles are able to make the small gains they need to fix that.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.6013/2 or the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Everton to hand Ranieri's Watford another defeat

Everton v Watford
Saturday, 15:00

A 5-0 home loss wasn't the start Claudio Ranieri would have wanted at Vicarage Road, and his next task is to tighten up defensively after his team allowed Liverpool 2.95 xGF over 90 minutes last weekend. They face an Everton side who look likely to still be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin, but the hosts will want to show their underwhelming home defeat to West Ham last time out was just a blip.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.4015/2

Leeds to sneak vital win against in-form Wolves

Leeds United v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Saturday, 15:00

As has often been the case this season, Leeds' injury list is a big caveat for their chances in a league game, but the return of Robin Koch from injury and Raphinha from international duty could be enough to see them through against Wolves. The visitors have seen results pick up to match their impressive performances, with the comeback from 2-0 down at Villa Park particularly impressive, but Infogol gives the hosts the narrowest of edges.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

1280 Mateusz Klich Leeds friendly 2021.jpg

Southampton to earn second straight win

Southampton v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00

Armando Broja's winner against Leeds was huge for Southampton, as was the nature of their performance during the 1-0 win, and a home meeting with Burnley is an ideal opportunity to earn back-to-back league wins for only the second time in all of 2021. Ralph Hasenhüttl's team came back from 2-0 down to win the corresponding game last season, and the visitors' underwhelming early-season form points to a similar outcome.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

City to bring Brighton down to earth

Brighton & Hove Albion v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30

Brighton's win against City last season came with the asterisk of a 10th-minute red card for the visitors, and Pep Guardiola's side will fancy their chances if it remains 11 v 11. City come into the game off the back of a mauling of Club Brugge in midweek, but Infogol's model expects their victory to be far less emphatic against a Seagulls side averaging just 1.1 xGA per game so far this season and even fewer in real terms.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 7.4013/2

Leicester the more likely winners in trip to Brentford

Brentford v Leicester City
Sunday, 14:00

Both of these sides created plenty against 'big four' teams last weekend, but with differing results. Leicester really came to life in their victory over Manchester United, showing some of the quality they had last season, but the outcome in west London may hinge on how quickly Brendan Rodgers' side are able to reenergise after a midweek trip to Spartak Moscow in the Europa League.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.206/1 or the 1-2 @ 11.5021/2

West Ham to triumph in London derby

West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, 14:00

West Ham and Spurs were separated by just three points last season, and the Hammers' home win over their London rivals was relatively even in xG terms. While just one point separates the pair right now, Nuno's visitors are much higher than the numbers say they should be, and Infogol anticipates a home win, though the presence of Harry Kane and Son Heung-min in the visiting attack will always remain a threat.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Liverpool to pile more pressure on Solskjær

Manchester United v Liverpool
Sunday, 16:30

Three winless games in the league have seen Manchester United drop out of the top four, and their next challenge against unbeaten Liverpool isn't the most inviting. The visitors won 4-2 at Old Trafford last season, while their 2.85 xGF average this term is comfortably the highest in the league, and Infogol can't see beyond an away victory which could ramp up the pressure on United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

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