Premier League Jones Knows Notebook: Are Villa overrated? Rasmus Hojlund looks a handful

• Aston Villa fall flat again - are they overrated?

• Rasmus Hojlund's quiet but exciting impact

• Shrewd West Ham business make them a top-10 play

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Emery is no giant-killer - are Villa just average?

Apparently, Unai Emery relishes the underdog tag. Well, relish it he might do but it's a misconception that his teams are dangerous playing away from home against elite opposition.

Aston Villa's 3-0 defeat to Liverpool - a completely fair result - was another disappointing day on the road for Emery against one of the big boys. When analysing fixtures where Emery manages a team going away to Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd in all competitions, his record now reads P58 W3 D13 L42.

That's a stinky 5% win ratio. And his teams have conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game in those fixtures. These figures are well out of kilter with the actual prices being offered on Villa winning these types of fixtures on recent evidence - they went off 4/15.00 to win at both Newcastle and Liverpool implying a 20% probability of victory.

An aggregate losing score of 8-1 over the two fixtures suggests the markets have rated Villa too high this season.

There could be some juice in laying them when favourites over the next few matchdays, starting with their home fixture against Crystal Palace on September 16. The 1.9520/21 on the Exchange looks too short to me.

Hojlund looks a handful - fouls backers take note

In all the bedlam and electricity of the final 10 minutes of Arsenal's win over Manchester United, the impact of Rasmus Hojlund swam well under the radar.

The £72million man was thrown on for his debut on 67 minutes by Erik ten Hag and quietly made an impression with his aggressive nature. For the first time under Ten Hag, United have a focal point to build their game around. The striker didn't look fazed by the occasion, latching himself onto the ultra-physical Gabriel from the moment he entered the fray and he mixed it in some heavyweight one-on-one duels.

This type of bulldozing, all-action striker playing with a point to prove makes him a man to watch across the fouls market over the next few Premier League matchdays.

The data backs that up. He drew 18 fouls across his last 11 appearances for club and country while committing 14 fouls himself.

Centre-backs are usually priced up quite generously in foul committing markets due to that position tending not to lend itself to situations of foul play.

Take for example United's next opponents Brighton, where centre-back Lewis Dunk averages just 0.40 fouls a game over his last 25 matches. That raw data will result in the algorithm spitting out a price which should in theory be trading around the Evens mark for Dunk to make one or more fouls. Up against Hojlund, for the reasons outlined, that becomes a very interesting angle. I'll be watching that market like a hawk.

Paqueta profits from sensible transfer strategy

Right, everybody sing with me to the tune of "Push The Feeling On" by the Nightcrawlers.

"West Ham sold their star, but they've got Paqueta."

Declan Rice's influence and ball-winning skills have gone but Lucas Paqueta is stepping up to the plate for the Hammers. He was on a different level to every player on the pitch during West Ham's comfortable 2-1 win at Luton on Friday night. No player had more touches (96) over the 90 minutes and he made 36 passes in the final third - 12 more than anyone else. Every potent attack had him at the heart of it, including his fabulous assist for Jarrod Bowen's goal.

Hands up. There was a big doubt in my mind whether West Ham's hierarchy would have the nous and correct strategy to spend the £105m generated from the Rice sale. However, the additions of James Ward-Prowse and Edson Alvarez with their exceptional work-rate and ability to be defensively aware out of possession have allowed Paqueta to become the main man. There was an arrogance about his performance at Luton - in a good way - and that stems from the midfield having a very exciting balance.

West Ham have already seen off two top-six chasing teams in Chelsea and Brighton and under David Moyes they are a very reliable outfit at beating lesser teams at home. Points should continue to flow their way and although a lack of an alternative to Michail Antonio is a worry, I was surprised to see 1.774/5 available to small money on the Exchange for a top-10 finish for the Hammers.

Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, is Sky Sports' resident betting expert - follow his Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.