Premier League Opta Stats: Best bets for Matchday 15

• Tips for every Premier League Matchday 15 fixture

• Watkins backed to score when Villa host leaders

• Mbeumo can fire Man Utd to glory at Molineux

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Aston Villa v Arsenal: Back Watkins to strike

Aston Villa v Arsenal
Saturday 6 December, 12:30
Live on TNT

The Opta Stat:

Ollie Watkins scored twice in Aston Villa's 4-3 win over Brighton last time out, having netted just twice in his previous 18 Premier League games. The striker also has six goals in 10 Premier League games against Arsenal, only netting more against Brighton (9). 

Betfair Bet: Back Watkins to score @ 13/53.60

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Bournemouth v Chelsea: Back unders as Cherries keep it tight

Bournemouth v Chelsea
Saturday 6 December, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Only Arsenal have conceded fewer home goals than Bournemouth (5) in the Premier League this season, though the Cherries suffered their first home defeat of the season against Everton last time out. 

Betfair Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 5/42.25

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Everton v Nottm Forest: Back Dyche to beat his old club

Everton v Nottm Forest
Saturday 6 December, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Nottingham Forest won away at both Everton and Liverpool last season, and have already won 3-0 at Anfield this season. The last team to win away against both Merseyside clubs in consecutive league campaigns were Manchester United in 2006-07/2007-08.

Everton have lost two of their last three Premier League home games (W1), more than they had in their previous 13 (W5 D7 L1).  

Betfair Bet: Back Forest @ 5/23.50

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Man City v Sunderland: Back home win and both teams to score

Man City v Sunderland
Saturday 6 December, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Manchester City have conceded eight goals in their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 12 combined. Their 5-4 win against Fulham last time out was the first time they'd won a league game in which they conceded 4+ goals since December 1957 (5-4 vs Sheffield Wednesday).  

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Newcastle v Burnley: Back Magpies to cover two goal handicap

Newcastle v Burnley
Saturday 6 December, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Burnley have lost seven of their last eight Premier League away games (W1), conceding at least twice in all eight of these matches. Only in their first 11 away games in the competition between August 2009 and January 2010 have they had a longer run conceding 2+ in the Premier League. 

Betfair Bet: Back Newcastle -2 @ 11/53.20

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Tottenham v Brentford: Back Thiago to trouble Spurs' defence

Tottenham v Brentford
Saturday 6 December, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Igor Thiago has scored nine goals in his last eight Premier League starts, with these goals being worth eight points to Brentford.  

Betfair Bet: Back Thiago to score @ 13/82.63

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Leeds v Liverpool: Back the Whites to take at least a point

Leeds v Liverpool
Saturday 6 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Liverpool have lost seven of their last 11 Premier League away games (W4), with only Fulham and Wolves (8 each) losing more since the start of April. The Reds' previous seven away defeats had come over a 45 game spell between January 2023 and February 2025. 

Betfair Bet: Back Leeds and Draw Double Chance @ 1/12.00

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Brighton v West Ham: Back second-half goals

Brighton v West Ham
Sunday 7 December, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

Brighton have scored more second half goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (17), 
including a joint league-high 10 in the final 15 minutes of games.

Betfair Bet: Back second-half to have most goals @ 11/102.11

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Fulham v Crystal Palace: Back Eagles to win to nil

Fulham v Crystal Palace
Sunday 7 December, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

Fulham have won none of their last six Premier League home games against Crystal Palace (D3 L3) since a 3-1 victory in January 2005. Crystal Palace won this exact fixture 2-0 in February, ending a six-game winless run against Fulham in the Premier League (D4 L2). 

Only Arsenal have kept more clean sheets (8) and conceded fewer goals (7) in the Premier League this season than Crystal Palace (7 clean sheets, 11 goals conceded), with the Eagles keeping a shutout in four of their last five games. 

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Wolves v Man Utd: Back Mbeumo to inspire Reds win

Wolves v Man Utd
Monday 8 December, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat: 

Wolves have lost each of their last seven Premier League games, failing to score in each of the last five. In their league history, they've only lost eight in a row once (December 1981 to February 1982), while this is their longest run of defeats without a goal. 

Man Utd's Bryan Mbeumo has either scored (3) or assisted (2) a goal in five of his six Premier League appearances against Wolves. 

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Now read Jack Critchley's Championship tipsheet for this weekend.

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