Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Back Magalhaes to strike in 33/1 bet builder

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Saturday 17 January, 17:30
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At the start of December, Nottingham Forest appeared to have turned a corner under Sean Dyche but then came four consecutive league defeats. They broke that run with a 2-1 win at West Ham before last weekend's defeat to Wrexham on penalties in the FA Cup. Conceding three goals to the Championship club shows that Dyche still has work to do if he is to tighten up his team at the back. 

Forest have been poor at home this season. They have lost six of their 10 Premier League games at the City Ground (W3 D1), already one more than they lost there in the whole of last season (W9 D5 L5). Forest have also conceded more home goals this term (17) than in 2024-25 (16).

They are 17th in the table but the weakness of the bottom means Dyche's team are seven points clear of the drop zone and 9/110.00 to go down.

Arsenal were busy in midweek, winning a ding-dong London derby 3-2 at Chelsea in the semi-finals of the League Cup. Mikel Arteta fielded a strong starting 11, with Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Magalhaes all in the line-up. Rice underlined his attacking threat by laying on an assist for the Gunners' first goal.   

Prior to that Arsenal won 4-1 in an FA Cup tie at Portsmouth while in their last league outing they dropped points in a 0-0 at home to Liverpool. The Gunners still top the table by six points, however, and are 1/51.20 to win the league. As Betfair ambassador Alan Shearer said last week: "Arsenal will never have a better chance [to win the title]."

Gunners can keep a clean sheet again

Arsenal won the reverse fixture 3-0 at the Emirates in the first match of Ange Postecoglou's ill-fated reign at Forest. They have a poor record against the Gunners, losing eight of their last 10 Premier League games against Arsenal, though both exceptions have come at the City Ground since their return to the top flight in 2022. Forest beat Arsenal 1-0 here in May 2023 and this fixture ended 0-0 last season. 

The last three fixtures between the teams have ended 3-0, 0-0, 3-0, so this has not been one for both teams to score backers. 'No' in Both Teams to Score on Saturday is 20/231.87 but if you believe the Gunners are a good bet to take three more points in the title race, backing them to win to nil is 6/42.50. 

Back unders at the City Ground

Arsenal have scored 10 goals across their last three away matches in all competitions. They believe they can outscore any opponent, as they demonstrated in their come-from-behind 3-2 win at Bournemouth, the last time they were on the road in the league.

Their 1-0 win at Everton last month, however, may be the blueprint this Saturday. Remember, Arsenal have kept clean sheets in their last three matches against Forest, so will be confident of holding on if they do get ahead. For that reason, it could make sense to back under 2.5 goals at 10/111.91. If you want to take this line of thinking further you might consider under 1.5 goals at 27/103.70. 

Gyokeres and Magalhaes stand out in goals markets

Viktor Gyokeres was supposed to be the out and out goalscorer that would get Arsenal over the line in this season's title race. For the first-half of the season, the Gunners have looked like potential champions in spite of the Swede's disappointing performances. 

But Gyokeres scored the decisive goal from the penalty spot against Everton and got a goal as well as an assist against Chelsea in midweek. He's still not setting English football on fire but these are indications that he will come good and make a meaningful contribution in the remaining 17 games of Arsenal's title bid. 

He still has only five Premier League goals but two of them - he got the other in a 2-0 win away to Burnely - have come on the road in the kind of narrow victory we anticipate on Saturday. After his impressive performance in midweek, it tempting to back Gyokeres to score or assist at 4/51.80.

One stat stands out though. Excluding penalties, Arsenal have scored more set-piece goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (14), while only Bournemouth (14) have conceded more from set plays than Nottingham Forest (13). 

Gunners defender Magalhaes continues to be a threat in opposition penalty boxes. He scored in Arsenal's last away match - the win at Bournemouth - and at 15/28.50 we will take a chance on him finding the net here.

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