Newcastle v Southampton: Winner uncertain, goals likely

Newcastle v Southampton
Saturday February 6, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Inconsistency plaguing the side

One step forward, one step back for Newcastle. After that really impressive 2-0 win at Everton at the weekend, they lost 2-1 at home to Palace, a match where they went 1-0 up thanks to a fine Jonjo Shelvey strike but were already 2-1 down after 25 minutes, which is how it stayed.

To be fair to the men in black and white, they were the better side with the more chances and possession but that doesn't count for anything.

It's typical of Newcastle's season that in the space of just a few days could produce two such different results.

I can't see them going down for three main reasons: they're eight points clear of 18th which is a lot, other teams have weaker squads and finally, they have in Callum Wilson a proven goalscorer, which other teams in lower positions don't have. But Steve Bruce has to show that the team is improving and has set gameplans, which at the moment isn't necessarily the case.

Saints in a slump

What can you say about that 9-0 loss? Well, for starters that it had the same key feature that the 'other one' against Leicester had: a very early sending off. After that it was just one of those days where the ball kept going in and as Man United's players realised there were goals up for grabs, just kept on going for more. There was also some misfortune, strange as that may sound. They had a goal of their own written off by an inch or so for offside, while the late penalty that inevitably resulted in Jan Bednarek's sending off and yet another goal, was marginal.

If I were a Saints' fan, I'd actually be more worried about their recent form than a one-off freak result. That was their fourth league loss in a row and that 1-0 win at home to Liverpool thanks to that early Danny Ings goal seems a long time ago now.

A minefield on the match winner market

I was a little surprised that Southampton are 2.56/4 favourites here. Let's forget about that 9-0 oddity but as we just said, their poor recent form can't just be ignored. Nor can the fact that Newcastle have pretty much owned this match over the past few seasons, winning all of the last three.

True that the Saints are seven points better off with a game in hand but right here, right now, they should be at least the same price as the hosts, not shorter. Then again, would you trust a side at 3.185/40 in Newcastle with four points from their last nine games? They're even worse at home in recent times, interestingly, losing each of their last three and all by the same result: 1-2.

It's 3.3512/5 the draw but none of the three really make much appeal.

'Overs' should pay out at a shade of odds-against

There's a good price going on over 2.5 goals. With 63% of Palace's away games and an even bigger 72% of the Magpies home games this season having at least three goals, that 2.021/1 looks very decent.

And even more so when you consider that all of the last four games here between these two had at least three goals: 2-1, 3-1, 3-0 and 2-2. As you can see, two of those even went over 3.5 goals, a 3.711/4 chance if you're interested.

In Wilson, Ings and Che Adams there are three decent goalscorers right there. Some Fantasy Football managers out there who 'owned' the unfortunate Dane may disagree (he scored an own goal as well, for good measure) but Bednarek's absence through suspension here is actually a big one. He's been their best defender this season and that may help the hosts' chances of scoring.

I wouldn't care to guess who's going to get at least two goals here for our bet to pay out but the price on 'overs' is worth taking in light of those stats.

Hosts can win cards market

There may be a little bit of value on the card index market where Newcastle are 11/10 to pick up more cards in the game. They have 41 yellows to Southampton's 32 this season and have had more yellows in this fixture in four of the last seven. Then again, the Saints are ahead on red cards (they count 25 points to the 10 for a yellow) for the season, as three red cards for the Saints plays just one for Newcastle. It's 6/4 the visitors get the most cards and 16/5 the tie.

Same Game Multi-bet suggestion

The Saints would do pretty well to bounce back from that midweek horror show with a win here and it's 4/9 they won't; the price on Newcastle or Draw on the Double Chance market.

If you add a Callum Wilson goal (11/8) to the equation, you get your same-game multi-bet up to 2.94.