Man City v Man Utd Big Game Focus: Back Erling Haaland in near 3/1 Bet Builder

Andre Onana playing for Manchester United
Manchester United goalkeeper Andre Onana could be in for a busy day in the Manchester Derby

Tom Victor's Big Match Focus features Manchester City v Manchester United, with the home side coming off a thumping FA Cup win...

  • City ramping up title charge

  • Haaland has found his shooting boots again

  • Read about Betfair's 90 minute payout offer here


  • Manchester City v Manchester United
    Sunday, 15:30
    Sky Sports Main Event

    As Manchester United and Manchester City prepare to face off in the second derby of the season, there couldn't be much of a bigger gulf between their recent results.

    United's recent resurgence came to a dramatic end last Saturday, with Alex Iwobi's late winner giving Fulham all three points at Old Trafford, with an unconvincing late win following against Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup. City might have only squeaked to a 1-0 win at Bournemouth in their last league outing but followed it up with a 6-2 hammering of Luton in the cup.

    It should perhaps be no surprise that Pep Guardiola's reigning champions are favourites for the title based on Opta's model, despite currently sitting a point below leaders Liverpool. United, in contrast, are given just a 3.2% chance of a top four finish after losing ground on rivals Aston Villa.

    A tale of two strikers

    United's defeat against Fulham saw them sorely miss Rasmus Hojlund. The Danish frontman had scored in every game his team played in 2024, only for a muscle injury to keep him out of that game as well as Wednesday's cup tie, and he won't be back in time for Sunday.

    That injury deprives him of the opportunity to face off with Erling Haaland, who remains the Premier League's leading scorer. Norway and City star Haaland hit five against Luton in the cup and is 1/21.50 to score on Sunday or 5/23.50 to net two or more.

    Haaland's five Premier League goals against United are more than he has scored against any other Premier League opponent, and he hit a hat-trick in a 6-3 win last season. He's 9/110.00 to score another hat-trick and draw level with City legend Sergio Agüero with eight strikes in Manchester Derbiesh

    Back Erling Haaland to score two or more goals @ 5/23.50

    Bet here

    English Premier League - Top 5 Goalscorers

    Player Team Goals Scored
    Erling Haaland Man City 18
    Ollie Watkins Aston Villa 16
    Dominic Solanke Bournemouth 15
    Mohamed Salah Liverpool 15
    Jarrod Bowen West Ham 14

    Powered by

    Opta

    United looking to stop the rot

    Last season's 6-3 reverse was a second straight defeat for United at the Etihad Stadium. City are 1/41.25 to win this one as well, but there's a glimmer of hope for Erik ten Hag's side.

    No Premier League fixture has delivered a higher number of away wins than the Manchester Derby, at 42%. United won at the Etihad Stadium under their last permanent boss, Ole Gunnar Solskjær, and are 17/29.50 to win this time.

    If the visitors are to prevail, they may need a big performance from captain Bruno Fernandes on his 150th Premier League outing for the club. The Portugal international is 5/16.00 to score at any time on Sunday, but his current rate of a goal or assist every 281 minutes is his worst single-season return in English football... despite him creating a league-leading 74 chances this season.

    Back Man City (-1) @ 8/111.73

    Bet here

    Manchester City v Manchester United prediction

    Haaland isn't the only danger man for City, with Phil Foden also scoring a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture last season. The England international, who also scored the winner at Bournemouth last time out, is 15/28.50 to score first on Sunday and 11/53.20 to score at any time.

    English Premier League - Top 7 Shots

    Team Played Shots On target Av/Game
    Liverpool 33 542 16.4
    Man City 32 504 15.8
    Arsenal 34 478 14.1
    Tottenham 32 432 13.5
    Brighton 32 419 13.1
    Man Utd 32 402 12.6
    Aston Villa 34 421 12.4

    Powered by

    Opta

    One goal or assist for Foden this weekend would see the player and club achieve milestones. For Foden himself, a 17th goal involvement would be a new personal best for a single season, while a goal of any kind for City would see them draw level with their club record of scoring in 55 home games in all competitions - set a decade ago when Manuel Pellegrini was in the dugout.

    We have our eye on the Bet Builder market for this game, and it's hard to look past Haaland despite him only scoring in two of his team's last eight Premier League outings. Manchester City -1, with Haaland to score two or more and a goal to be scored in each half, can be backed at 14/53.80.

    Back Man City -1, Haaland to score two or more and a goal scored in each half @ 14/53.80

    Bet here

    Now find more Bet Builder tips for the Manchester derby!


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Tom's P/L for the 2023-24 season

Staked: 50.00pts

Returned: 33.35pts

P/L: -16.65pts

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